Sugar Futures Retreat

2026-08-25 13:13 By Luisa Carvalho 1 min. read

US sugar futures eased to around 17.2 cents per pound, down slightly from recent one-year highs, amid market correction and the pullback in oil prices.

The prospect of lower Indian sugar imports than initially expected also weighed on prices.

Greenleaf, an Indian sugar industry research firm, estimates that the country may import no more than 500,000 tonnes by October 31, half of the 1 million tonnes authorized duty-free by the Directorate General of Foreign Trade.

However, the global sugar balance remains tight, with climate risks in major producing regions and a potential shift toward ethanol production adding to supply concerns, particularly in Brazil.

Conab expects Brazilian sugarcane production to rise 4.7% to 705.2 million tonnes in 2026/27, but sugar output to fall 2.9% to 42.89 million tonnes, while ethanol production is forecast to increase 9.7% to 29.98 billion liters.

A potentially strong El Niño could add further pressure on global output in the coming months.



News Stream
Sugar Futures Retreat
US sugar futures eased to around 17.2 cents per pound, down slightly from recent one-year highs, amid market correction and the pullback in oil prices. The prospect of lower Indian sugar imports than initially expected also weighed on prices. Greenleaf, an Indian sugar industry research firm, estimates that the country may import no more than 500,000 tonnes by October 31, half of the 1 million tonnes authorized duty-free by the Directorate General of Foreign Trade. However, the global sugar balance remains tight, with climate risks in major producing regions and a potential shift toward ethanol production adding to supply concerns, particularly in Brazil. Conab expects Brazilian sugarcane production to rise 4.7% to 705.2 million tonnes in 2026/27, but sugar output to fall 2.9% to 42.89 million tonnes, while ethanol production is forecast to increase 9.7% to 29.98 billion liters. A potentially strong El Niño could add further pressure on global output in the coming months.
2026-08-25
Sugar Futures at Over 1-Year High
US sugar futures traded above 17 cents per pound, hovering near their highest level since May 2025. The market remains supported by prospects of a tighter global supply, with the strongest El Niño in decades adding to production risks. Analysts have been revising up their forecasts for a global sugar shortfall in 2026/27, with the deficit potentially widening further in 2027/28 on lower cane and beet plantings. India, the EU and Thailand are among the regions identified as most vulnerable to adverse weather conditions. At the same time, elevated oil prices could encourage cane diversion to ethanol production in major producers like Brazil. The country raised its mandatory ethanol blend to 32% in late July from 30% a month earlier and 27% a year earlier, potentially reducing sugar availability. Meanwhile, India is looking overseas to bolster sugar supplies and cool record prices, potentially intensifying demand pressure in the global market.
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