Sugar Futures at Over 2-Week Low

2026-05-25 10:41 By Luisa Carvalho 1 min. read

Sugar futures in the US fell toward 14.7 US cents, the lowest since early May, partly influenced by oil prices.

Optimism over a potential US–Iran deal pushed crude oil prices lower, reducing incentives for mills to divert sugarcane into ethanol production and potentially increasing sugar supply.

At the same time, higher shipments from Thailand, the world's second largest exporter of the commodity, reinforced the scenario of ample global supply.

According to industry data, Thai sugar exports between January and April totaled 1.6 million tons, a 29% increase compared to the same period of the previous year.

The market also continued to weigh recent projections of increased supply.

The International Sugar Organization (ISO) raised its estimate of the 2025/26 global surplus, projecting record production of 182 million tons, up 3.5% from the previous season, and a surplus of 2.2 million tons versus a prior forecast of 1.22 million, reversing a 3.46 million-ton deficit in 2024/25.



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Sugar Futures at Over 2-Week Low
Sugar futures in the US fell toward 14.7 US cents, the lowest since early May, partly influenced by oil prices. Optimism over a potential US–Iran deal pushed crude oil prices lower, reducing incentives for mills to divert sugarcane into ethanol production and potentially increasing sugar supply. At the same time, higher shipments from Thailand, the world's second largest exporter of the commodity, reinforced the scenario of ample global supply. According to industry data, Thai sugar exports between January and April totaled 1.6 million tons, a 29% increase compared to the same period of the previous year. The market also continued to weigh recent projections of increased supply. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) raised its estimate of the 2025/26 global surplus, projecting record production of 182 million tons, up 3.5% from the previous season, and a surplus of 2.2 million tons versus a prior forecast of 1.22 million, reversing a 3.46 million-ton deficit in 2024/25.
2026-05-25
Sugar Futures at Over 3-Week Low
US sugar futures fell to around 14.6 US cents, the lowest since late April, weighed down by the dollar's strength and increased supply from top producer Brazil. Ongoing sugarcane crushing in the Center-South region is further boosting physical availability and pressuring prices. Meanwhile, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) raised its estimate of the 2025/26 global surplus, projecting record production of 182 million tons, up 3.5% from the previous season, and a surplus of 2.2 million tons versus a prior forecast of 1.22 million, reversing a 3.46 million-ton deficit in 2024/25.The outlook for 2026/27 is tighter, with production forecast to decline 1.15% to 180 million tons and a potential 262,000-ton deficit, partly due to potential El Niño impacts on key producers India and Thailand. The brokerage firm Czarnikow, however, sees a modest 1.4 million-ton surplus, driven by stronger Chinese production.
2026-05-22
Sugar Futures at 1-Week High
Sugar futures in the US traded slightly above 15 US cents, the highest in a week, reflecting concerns over the upcoming season and expectations of increased demand for biofuels. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) new estimates indicated a larger 2025/26 global sugar surplus of 2.244 million tons, compared with 1.22 million previously. However, it projected global sugar production in 2026/27 to fall 1.15% year-on-year to 180 MMT, resulting in a 262,000 MT deficit, citing potential El Niño-driven disruptions in India and Thailand. Ethanol production is forecast to rise from 123.1 to 129.4 billion litres in 2026, supported by a recovery in Brazil and expansion in India, with consumption at 126.9 billion litres, still below output. Meanwhile, Brazil’s fuel subsidies to offset higher gasoline and diesel prices from the Iran conflict are expected to support ethanol, potentially shifting sugar mills toward ethanol production.
2026-05-20