Sugar Futures Rebound

Sugar prices rose to around 15.1 cents per pound, their highest in nearly a month, supported by higher oil prices, new uncertainties about weather conditions in India and projections of a global deficit for the 2026/27 crop. Despite improving rainfall in the world's second-largest producer, where the deficit narrowed from 42% at the end of June to 12% below average by August 3, traders remain focused on precipitation during the crucial June-to-September crop development period. India's Meteorological Department said on July 31 that monsoon rainfall in August and September is likely to remain below average. The outlook for the global balance sheet is also continuing to support prices. On August 3rd, Covrig Analytics shifted its 2026/27 outlook to a 300,000-ton deficit from the 100,000-ton surplus projected in June, echoing recent revisions by Green Pool and StoneX, which also raised their global deficit forecasts. El Niño remains an additional threat to global sugar supplies.

Sugar decreased to 14.37 USd/Lbs, the lowest since June 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Sugar lost 4.12%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 12.09%.

Sugar prices have been fluctuating below 15 cents per pound, remaining more than 10% lower than a year ago, as expectations of abundant global supplies continue to outweigh emerging production risks. The main bearish factor is India, where improved monsoon rains have boosted prospects for a larger sugar crop, while government measures to limit stock holdings aim to ensure adequate domestic availability. Lower crude oil prices have also pressured sugar, as weaker ethanol prices encourage mills, particularly in Brazil, to divert more sugarcane toward sugar production rather than ethanol, increasing supply. However, downside pressure has been partly offset by forecasts of a global sugar deficit in 2026/27, reflecting lower output in Brazil and Thailand and the potential impact of a strengthening El Niño on key producing regions. Meanwhile, the USDA revised US sugar stocks lower following data corrections and projects tighter domestic supplies.