Soybeans Trade Near 2-Week Highs

Soybean futures traded above $12.2 per bushel, hovering near their highest level in two weeks, supported by South American planting risks and tightening global stock projections. The November 10 WASDE report raised US soybean production to 4.574 billion bushels but lowered ending stocks to 300 million bushels, as higher domestic use and exports more than offset the production increase. Global ending stocks were also revised down to 123.5 million metric tons. Elsewhere, heavy El Niño-related rainfall is forecast across Argentina, Paraguay and southern Brazil in the second half of November. Excessive rain could delay soybean planting and introduce uncertainty over the 2027 crop. Meanwhile, China has reportedly purchased 21.8 million metric tons of US soybeans so far in 2026, equivalent to 87% of its 25-million-ton annual commitment. However, competitively priced Brazilian supplies remain a major source of competition.

Soybean futures held above $12.2 per bushel, after climbing off multi-month lows, as the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) tightened its US supply outlook by cutting production and inventory forecasts more than expected. The agency’s US soybean production estimate came in 23 million bushels below the average analyst forecast, while its projection for domestic and export demand prompted a 15-million-bushel reduction in expected end-of-season stocks, against market expectations for an increase. Meanwhile, the USDA maintained its South American soybean production outlook. However, gains were partly tempered by weaker demand signals from China, where October soybean imports fell to their lowest monthly level since 2023 amid high crusher inventories, negative margins and low pork prices. Still, China’s agriculture ministry raised its 2025/26 soybean import estimate, leaving its 2026/27 forecast unchanged.

Soybean futures surged 3% above $12 a bushel, recovering from three-month lows and tracking gains across grain markets after the latest WASDE report. The USDA raised its estimate of US soybean production to 4.574 billion bushels, with a record average yield of 53.3 bushels per acre, up from its October forecast of 4.562 billion bushels and 53.1 bushels per acre. In contrast, the agency cut its corn production estimate to 15.893 billion bushels, below both its previous forecast and analysts’ expectations, citing a lower projected yield. As of November 8, the US soybean harvest was 92% complete and corn harvesting had reached 81%. Expectations of large crops in Brazil could limit further gains, although renewed optimism over Chinese demand provided support. Beijing has pledged to purchase 25 million metric tons of US soybeans annually for three years, alongside additional agricultural products, raising hopes for stronger exports ahead of a possible Trump-Xi meeting later this month.