Soybeans Climb on US–China Farm Deal

Soybean futures climbed more than 1% to near $12 per bushel, rebounding from losses seen on May 15 after new details emerged from President Donald Trump’s two-day summit in China regarding agricultural trade commitments. The White House said that China agreed to purchase at least $17 billion worth of US agricultural products annually through 2028, intended to supplement earlier soybean purchase agreements. After Trump’s meeting with President Xi last year, China had initially committed to buying 12 million metric tons of soybeans, alongside a broader pledge to purchase 25 million tons annually for three years. While the announcement was largely welcomed by US farmers seeking clearer demand signals following the summit, they still face persistent pressure from relatively low crop prices and elevated production costs in recent years. These challenges have been further intensified by Trump’s tariffs and rising fertilizer costs linked to the broader conflict in the Middle East.

Soybean futures fell to below $12 per bushel, following a 3% drop in the prior session as traders remained cautious despite potential large-scale Chinese purchases of American agricultural goods. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said China is expected to make “double-digit billion” annual purchases of US farm products over the next three years, while President Donald Trump said Beijing would buy “a lot of soybeans” from US farmers. Greer also pointed to an existing agreement for China to purchase 25 million tons of US soybeans annually over the coming years. Still, sentiment remained restrained as markets awaited concrete details on the timing and scale of purchases, after the first day of talks between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping failed to produce confirmed trade commitments. Meanwhile, the USDA projected US soybean stocks to decline to 310 million bushels by the end of the 2026 to 2027 marketing year, down from 340 million expected at the end of the current season.

Soybean futures fell nearly 3% to below $12 per bushel, retreating from a two-year high of $12.3 reached on May 13, as traders took profits following recent gains linked to Tuesday’s WASDE report and reacted to the lack of concrete agricultural announcements from the US-China summit. Market sentiment was weighed down by indications that no fresh Chinese soybean purchases are imminent, with traders noting that China is unlikely to go beyond its existing commitment to buy 25 million metric tons. China has reduced US soybean imports significantly in recent years, increasingly sourcing from Brazil due to lower prices and strong supply availability. According to the US Department of Agriculture, US agricultural exports to China fell to $8.37 billion last year from $24.41 billion in 2024. The USDA also projected US soybean stocks to decline to 310 million bushels by the end of the 2026 to 2027 marketing year, down from 340 million expected at the end of the current season.