Silver Set for Fourth Weekly Gain

Silver held steady near $79 an ounce on Friday and was on track for a fourth consecutive weekly advance, as prospects for a permanent ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran helped ease concerns over inflation and central bank rate hikes. President Donald Trump said Tehran had agreed to terms including abandoning ambitions for a nuclear weapon, supplying “free oil,” and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, although Iranian officials have yet to verify these claims. Despite this, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed under a dual blockade, while IMF Executive Director Fatih Birol cautioned that restoring a meaningful portion of disrupted oil and gas output could take up to two years. Even so, oil prices have retreated sharply amid growing optimism over a potential Iran deal, easing inflationary pressures and dampening expectations of further rate hikes. Silver is set to rise by about 4% this week and was nearly 30% above its March low.

Silver climbed above $80 an ounce on Thursday, marching toward one-month highs as investors assessed the outlook for renewed negotiations and a potential long-term peace deal between the US and Iran that could help ease inflation pressures. Reports suggested Washington and Tehran are considering extending their two-week ceasefire to allow more time for talks, even as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed under a dual blockade. Attention is now shifting to a possible second round of US-Iran discussions, expected to focus on reopening the strait and Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. Precious metals have drawn support in recent weeks as diplomatic progress in the Middle East reduced concerns over inflation and possible central bank tightening. However, silver remains nearly 15% lower since the conflict began.

Silver traded at $79.3 per ounce on Wednesday, near a one-month high, as investors weighed progress in US-Iran peace talks against lingering economic and supply challenges. Mediators reported advances in extending the ceasefire, though uncertainty persists after the US announced plans to deploy 10,000 more troops to the region. A weaker dollar, hovering near six-week lows, provided support for silver, while the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach to inflation has eased expectations of aggressive monetary tightening. Despite these tailwinds, silver has dropped about 15% since the Iran conflict began, as higher interest rates reduce demand for non-yielding assets. Adding to supply concerns, the Silver Institute and Metals Focus warned of a sixth consecutive year of structural deficit, with 762 million troy ounces drawn from stocks since 2021, raising the risk of a liquidity squeeze. Industrial demand is forecast to decline 3% to 640 million ounces in 2026.