Silver Extends March Sell-Off

Silver slipped to around $74 per ounce on the first trading day of April, extending its sharp monthly sell-off of more than 20% in March. This marked the steepest decline since September 2011, and silver now trades nearly 40% below January’s record highs, reflecting inflation concerns amid disrupted energy markets and prompting a hawkish shift by investors and central banks. Traders have abandoned expectations of US rate cuts in 2026, reversing pre-war forecasts of two cuts. Meanwhile, markets briefly steadied early in the session as hopes of easing Middle East tensions emerged. President Trump indicated that the US had largely achieved its military objectives and would leave other nations to manage issues in the Strait of Hormuz. This followed Iranian state media citing President Masoud Pezeshkian, who said the Islamic Republic is ready to end the war if its conditions are met.

Silver rose to $73 per ounce on Tuesday, drawing some buying interest at lower levels, but remained on track for its biggest monthly drop in over 14 years. The metal has plummeted more than 20% in March, its sharpest decline since September 2011, and now trades nearly 40% below the record highs reached in late January. The escalating Middle East conflict has disrupted global energy markets and intensified inflation concerns, prompting investors and central banks to adopt a more hawkish stance on interest rates. With Iran maintaining its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the crisis has driven a surge in oil prices, reinforcing expectations of tighter monetary policy. Traders have fully abandoned bets on US rate cuts in 2026, a dramatic shift from pre-war forecasts of two cuts, despite Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s reassurance that long-term inflation expectations remain contained. The US dollar has emerged as the dominant safe haven, weighing heavily on silver and other precious metals.

Silver rose above $72 per ounce on Tuesday as oil prices eased, but remained on track for a decline of more than 20% in March, marking its worst monthly performance since September 2011. Precious metals faced persistent pressure this month from an oil-driven inflation shock that pushed investors and policymakers toward a more hawkish interest rate stance. The Middle East conflict has now entered its fifth week with no signs of easing, as Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz and threatened to disrupt Red Sea shipping. Meanwhile, Jerome Powell said long-term US inflation expectations appear anchored despite heightened uncertainties linked to the conflict and noted that the central bank’s policy stance allows officials to gauge the economic impact of the Iran war.