Silver Attempts to Rebound

Silver prices rebounded past $82.5 per ounce on Friday as a surprise drop in non-farm payrolls triggered a flight to safety, though the metal remains on track for weekly losses due to earlier geopolitical-driven strength in the US dollar. Silver traded lower for much of the week as the US-Israeli conflict with Iran pushed crude prices higher, fueling inflation fears and forcing traders to delay expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts until late 2026. The latest labor data provided a sharp reversal for sentiment, as the 92,000 decline in payrolls and the rise in unemployment to 4.4% effectively reduced the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets by raising the probability of earlier monetary easing. While the dollar index retreated from its weekly highs, silver still faces significant pressure from the broader risk-off environment and lingering inflationary risks tied to the escalating conflict in the Middle East.

Silver rose above $84 per ounce on Friday as the broader precious metals market rebounded, but remained on track to lose more than 10% for the week as investors sought the dollar amid the escalating Middle East conflict and mounting inflation concerns. The US-Israeli offensive against Iran has now entered its seventh day, while Tehran launched a fresh wave of missile and drone strikes across the Gulf. Traders also contended with surging oil prices, which fueled fears of resurgent global inflation, supporting bets that the Federal Reserve will delay rate cuts and strengthening the dollar at the expense of other safe-haven assets. Markets have pushed back expectations for the next Fed rate cut to September or October from earlier projections of July. Recent US data further highlighted robust economic momentum, with lower jobless claims, stronger productivity, fewer job cuts, and faster-than-expected growth in the services sector.

Silver traded around $83.5 per ounce on Thursday, shifting between gains and losses as the dollar rebounded amid heightened uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran conflict. The US-Israeli campaign against Iran has now entered its sixth day, keeping markets on edge over the potential for further escalation and the risk of a prolonged confrontation. A US submarine sank an Iranian warship off the coast of Sri Lanka, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth describing the strike as the “first such attack on an enemy since World War II.” Reports also surfaced that Iranian operatives had reached out to the US to explore possible peace talks, though Tehran later denied the outreach. Meanwhile, the Trump administration sought to reassure markets about the continuity of commercial activity in the Gulf. Elsewhere, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said President Donald Trump’s recently announced 15% global tariff is expected to take effect later this week.