Rice Futures Up to Over 1-Week High

Rice futures rose above $12.2 per hundredweight, the highest in over a week, on climate risks and continued Middle East disruptions despite ample supply and relatively weak global demand. Major producers in Southeast Asia are bracing for an extreme El Niño weather pattern expected to bring hotter, drier conditions and potentially affect rice production. Philippines recently warned that it could cut paddy rice production by up to 700,000 tons, or 3.5% of the annual target. At the same time, farmers continued to face high input costs due to disrupted fuel and fertilizer supplies amid limited traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Rice exports from Thailand slipped 10.75% from January to May compared to the same period of last year. Meanwhile, recent data showed India’s rice stocks held in government warehouses surged to a record high of 68.43 million metric tonnes as of June 1, up 15% yoy and more than five times the official buffer requirement of 13.5 million tonnes for July 1.

Rice futures traded below $12 per hundredweight, near the lowest since May 8, amid signs of ample global supply. The June USDA WASDE report indicated that global 2026/27 production was unchanged at 537.8 million tons compared to May, while 2025/26 output was raised by 1.9 million to 544.7 million, driven mainly by India. Latest data showed India’s rice stocks held in government warehouses surged to a record high of 68.43 million metric tonnes as of June 1, up 15% year-on-year and more than five times the official buffer requirement of 13.5 million tonnes for July 1. The country’s rice output reached a record 154.02 million tonnes in the 2025-26 agricultural year, up from 150.18 million tonnes in the prior period. Strong rice stocks are seen supporting India, which contributes about 40% of global rice exports, allowing it to maintain robust export flows despite El Niño-driven weather risks and potential rainfall disruptions. On the demand side, 2026/27 consumption was slightly reduced.

Rice decreased to 12.30 USD/cwt, the lowest since May 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Rice gained 0.66%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 9.94%.