Rice Futures Hover Around 4-Month Highs

Rice futures traded around $11 per hundredweight, the lowest since late January, pressured by ample global supply from abundant harvests in major Asian exporters, which more than offset demand. The FAO’s latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief released on February 6 projected global rice production for 2025/26 at 561.6 million tonnes, up 2% year-on-year and an all-time high, reflecting a 2.9 million-tonne upward revision since December, largely driven by stronger-than-expected output in India. Higher output in Bangladesh, Brazil, China and Indonesia is also seen outweighing contractions in Madagascar, Pakistan, Thailand, and the United States. Global rice stocks are expected to climb 3.8% by the end of the 2025/26 marketing year, reaching a new high of 217.7 million tonnes, exceeding December estimates by 900,000 tonnes, primarily due to India’s revised reserves.

Rice futures traded slightly above $11 per hundredweight, near the highest since September 2025, supported by continued demand from Asia and Africa, where rice is a staple food. Meanwhile, the USDA’s February WASDE report shows the 2025/26 US rice outlook with lower supplies, stable domestic use, reduced exports, and higher ending stocks. The global outlook has changed only slightly from the previous month, with rising supplies, lower consumption and trade, and higher ending stocks. Supplies increased by 0.2 million tons to 732.6 million due to higher output in Cambodia.

Rice increased to 11.21 USD/cwt, the highest since October 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Rice gained 11.04%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 18.08%.