Palm Oil Hits Mid-July Low on Weak Exports, Supply Pressure

Malaysian palm oil futures extended their decline, falling below MYR 4,150 per tonne to their lowest level since March, as traders digested October data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB). Inventories surged to a new record 3.62 million tonnes, marking a seventh monthly increase, while production rose for a fifth month, gaining 1.74% mom to 2.15 million tonnes. Further pressure came from weaker crude oil prices, which reduced palm oil's appeal as a biodiesel feedstock, after U.S. President Trump signaled that further military strikes on Iran were unlikely. Regional competition also mounted as Indonesia cut its November CPO reference price by over 6% and slashed its export levy, making its supplies more competitive. Still, losses were limited by MPOB data showing a 55.8% monthly rebound in exports to 1.71 million tonnes, the highest in a year. The recovery coincided with stronger demand from India, where palm oil imports hit a 14-month high in October ahead of the Diwali festival.

Malaysian palm oil futures extended their decline, hovering below MYR 4,350 per tonne at their lowest level since March. Prices are poised for their deepest weekly drop in almost two years, pressured by plunging rival edible oil prices and record-high inventories. A sharp weekly drop in crude oil prices also weighed on sentiment, reducing palm oil's appeal as a biodiesel feedstock amid easing concerns over Middle East supply disruptions. Meanwhile, regional competition intensified as top supplier Indonesia cut its Nov. crude palm oil reference price by over 6% and lowered its export levy, making its supplies more competitive. Uncertainty over potential changes to Malaysia's CPO export tax further dampened sentiment. Still, the downside was partly cushioned by solid exports, with Oct. shipments surging 45.4%–73.5% from Sept. Palm oil imports by key buyer India also climbed to a 14-month high ahead of Diwali. Markets will be closed Monday for a public holiday.

Malaysian palm oil futures extended their decline, remaining below MYR 4,500 per tonne and notching their lowest level since June. A stronger ringgit and weakness in Dalian and Chicago edible oils rattled sentiment, alongside expectations that October stockpiles reached a fresh record after September’s peak. Lower crude oil prices also weighed on demand prospects, as a Democratic sweep in the US midterms fuelled expectations of greater pressure on President Trump to seek a resolution to the Iran conflict, reducing palm oil’s appeal as a biodiesel feedstock. Competitive pressure increased after Indonesia cut its November CPO reference price by 6.07% to USD 978.90 per tonne and lowered its export levy, boosting the attractiveness of its supplies. Still, losses were partly capped by solid demand, with October exports surging 45.4%-73.5% from September. Meanwhile, palm oil imports in top buyer India climbed to a 14-month high ahead of Diwali.