Palladium Falls Amid Middle East Escalation

Palladium fell below $1,220 per ounce, as renewed US-Iran tensions increased market uncertainty. The US launched new strikes against Iran, blaming its attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, while oil prices surged on concerns over potential supply disruptions. US President Donald Trump said the tentative ceasefire with Iran was over and revoked the 60-day waiver that had allowed Tehran to sell crude oil, while Iran called the move a violation of the agreement. On the supply side, Russia’s Norilsk Nickel, the world’s largest palladium producer, expects output to fall 2% this year due to declining ore grades. Meanwhile, South Africa’s Sibanye-Stillwater announced plans to advance seven primary platinum group metal mining projects.

Palladium decreased 5.07% to 1216.5 USD/t.oz

Palladium hovered near $1,280 per ounce, steadying after recent losses as investors assessed shifting expectations for US monetary policy ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes. Softer-than-expected US jobs data last week prompted markets to scale back expectations for a near-term rate hike, supporting sentiment across precious metals. Traders now see a 56%–57% chance of a September rate increase, down from above 60% before the jobs report, while the upcoming Fed minutes are expected to provide further policy clues. Meanwhile, gains were capped as oil prices climbed following fresh attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, reviving concerns over energy supply disruptions and renewed inflationary pressures. On the supply side, Russia's Norilsk Nickel, the world's largest palladium producer, expects output to decline 2% this year due to lower ore grades, while South African platinum group metal mines continue to face production disruptions.