Palladium Gains on Tight Supply and Shifting Demand

Palladium climbed toward $1,185 per ounce, returning to mid-September levels, as primary supply continues to fall faster than net demand.

South African output lagged expectations in H1 2025, while North American supply was further constrained by Stillwater’s operational restructuring and Impala Canada’s upcoming closure scheduled for 2026.

Secondary supply is rebounding, supported by China’s extension of its vehicle trade-in program through 2025, but it remains insufficient to fully offset the drop in primary output.

On the demand side, automotive consumption is set to weaken as rising BEV market share displaces ICE and hybrid vehicle production.

However, this downward pressure is partly offset by rising industrial demand, driven by record-high gold prices that shifted some plating demand toward palladium and boosted electronics-related usage.

Investment demand has also strengthened, with rising ETF holdings reflecting increased investor interest amid ongoing trade uncertainties.