Nickel Prices Rise on Supply Control

Nickel futures traded around $17,300 per tonne, climbing from recent levels, as Indonesia’s quota cut supported investor confidence. The country has signaled continued production discipline for its 2026 quota, with RKAB approvals indicating output in the range of roughly 190–200 million tons, reinforcing market sentiment despite ongoing oversupply. Prices have stabilized in the $17,000–$17,400 range as markets adjust to the tighter quotas. However, gains remain capped as global inventories are still elevated and the overall market is projected to run a surplus in 2026. Demand has stayed subdued, with stainless steel production ample and overall manufacturing activity weak, while battery sector adoption trends have yet to drive a sharp rise in demand this month. In addition, policy support emerged in April, with Western Australia offering interest-free loans to help nickel miners resume operations and ramp up production.

Nickel futures are trading around $17,100, falling from March highs near $17,770, reflecting ongoing structural tightness in the market and cautious investor sentiment. Supply remains constrained as Indonesia advances its proposed export tax on nickel, while disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz add logistical pressure on key raw materials. On the corporate front, Vale Base Metals reported a 13% increase in its nickel reserves and resources in 2025, supporting medium-term supply potential, while regional collaboration through the IndoPhil Nickel Corridor aims to strengthen integrated, resilient supply chains. Demand fundamentals remain robust, driven by growth in electric vehicle batteries, renewable energy storage, and industrial applications. China continues to account for a significant share of exports, while diversification efforts across Asia underscore the strategic importance of nickel in global critical mineral markets.

Nickel futures rose to around $17,300 per tonne, rebounding from a recent over one-month low, amid renewed hopes for a temporary de-escalation in the Middle East conflict. The US proposed a one-month ceasefire to Iran, boosting risk sentiment and triggering short-term gains in industrial metals markets. On the supply front, Nickel Industries received approval for 14.3 million wet metric tonnes of 2026 nickel ore sales in Indonesia, providing clarity for both domestic and export supply, underpinning futures prices. Meanwhile, the market remains cautious over potential windfall taxes on nickel in Indonesia, which could affect output and costs. Chinese liquidity support helped bolster sentiment, as the People’s Bank of China conducted a 500 billion yuan medium-term lending facility operation. Overall, nickel remains in a sensitive range, with prices fluctuating amid supply reassurances and lingering geopolitical risks.