Nickel Futures Fall Amid Market Caution

Nickel futures traded around $19,000 per tonne, pulling back from a recent over two-year high near $19,600, as profit-taking emerged after the recent sharp rally. Traders began locking in gains as the market digested the speed of the move rather than any deterioration in underlying fundamentals. Broader industrial metals also showed mixed price action, reflecting a pause in risk appetite after a strong run across the base metals complex. The earlier rally had been driven by tightening supply narratives and Indonesia-linked policy signals, including expectations of higher export-related costs and windfall taxes that reinforced a higher cost floor for the nickel industry. Elevated official reference prices and strong momentum in refined nickel contracts also pulled the broader complex higher. Meanwhile, nickel remains underpinned by Indonesia’s structurally tight supply backdrop, alongside cooperation efforts with the Philippines on downstream processing and supply chains.

Nickel futures traded above $19,500 per tonne, nearing a two-year high, as supply disruptions and tightening raw material availability reinforced bullish momentum in the market. Prices were underpinned by mining quota cuts in Indonesia, which have constrained ore supply and raised concerns over feedstock availability for downstream processors. In addition, a sulfur shortage linked to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz added further pressure by raising processing costs for nickel intermediates and tightening output conditions beyond the mining stage. Sentiment was also supported by broader strength across base metals, with SHFE nickel and peers advancing amid a softer dollar and improved risk appetite. Indonesian stainless steel producers suspended offers ahead of expected price hikes, signaling pass-through of higher input costs. Further momentum was driven by expectations of continued supply discipline in Indonesia, reinforcing views that tight conditions could persist in near term.

Nickel increased to 19163.00 USD/T, the highest since June 2024. Over the past 4 weeks, Nickel gained 10.59%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 22.15%.