Nickel Futures Extend Gains on Indonesia Quotas

Nickel traded around $16,680 per tonne, reaching its lowest level since early July, as ample near-term supply weighed on prices. Indonesia imported 11.4 million tonnes of nickel ore from the Philippines in January-July, up from 6.82 million tonnes a year earlier, indicating continued feedstock availability for Indonesian smelters despite tighter mining quotas. Additionally, MHP supply recovered somewhat as sulfur arrivals improved production at some Indonesian projects, while weak nickel sulfate prices pressured payables, suggesting tighter ore availability has yet to cause a broad shortage across the processing chain. At the same time, LME nickel inventories rose to 268,314 tonnes at end-August, keeping a sizeable stock overhang. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s 2026 mining quota is reportedly down to 260–270 million tonnes from 379 million tonnes in 2025, while producers are considering HPAL cuts of around 30%, which could further limit downside if implemented.

Nickel decreased to 16570.00 USD/T, the lowest since July 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Nickel lost 3.57%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 8.9%.

Nickel fell to around $16,750 per tonne as continuous refined-nickel inventory surpluses and weak Chinese demand continued to weigh on prices. LME nickel inventories rose 0.8% in August to 268,314 tonnes, while Chinese stainless-steel futures fell below CNY 14,000, pointing to continued weakness in a key end-use sector. Additionally, the Philippines’ new critical-minerals framework aims to accelerate mineral exploration, processing and downstream investment, potentially supporting future nickel supply. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s 2026 nickel ore quota stands at 260–270 million tonnes, well below the 379 million tonnes approved for 2025, pointing to tighter supply, although the possibility of additional quotas for smelters facing raw-material shortages could limit gains. Nickel is on track to fall roughly 2% in August and remains up more than 1% year to date.