Nickel Futures Extend Gains on Indonesia Quotas

Nickel decreased to 15252.00 USD/T, the lowest since December 2025. Over the past 4 weeks, Nickel lost 5.4%, and in the last 12 months, it increased 0.31%.

Nickel fell below $15,200 per tonne, hitting its lowest level since December 2025, as concerns over a global surplus continued to weigh on prices. The International Nickel Study Group revised its 2026 outlook from a 32,000-tonne deficit to a 19,000-tonne surplus and expects the excess to widen to 70,000 tonnes in 2027. At the same time, Indonesian nickel ore imports from the Philippines increased 65.75% year-on-year to 13.52 million tonnes in January-August 2026, with the additional supply helping Indonesian smelters secure feedstock and cushioning the impact of production restrictions. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s nickel smelter association forecasts a 3.5%-4% decline in domestic nickel product output this year, citing raw-material shortages, higher ore prices, drought-related water constraints, and some smelters redirecting power to aluminum.

Nickel traded around $15,600 per tonne, remaining near a recent over nine-month low of $15,510, as persistent oversupply and a stronger US dollar weighed on prices. LME inventories remained elevated at around 283,000 tonnes in early October, underscoring ample availability despite some production disruptions, while Indonesian nickel ore benchmarks had declined and premiums turned negative. Additionally, the dollar index had recently reached its highest level since April 2025, while rising expectations of a December Federal Reserve rate hike added pressure on dollar-denominated metals. Overnight declines in Chinese nickel and stainless steel prices also pointed to continued weakness across the metals market. Meanwhile, Indonesia is considering a moratorium on new smelters producing semi-finished nickel products to address an estimated global surplus of 2.5 million tonnes. If implemented, the restrictions could curb future capacity growth.