US Natgas Prices Edge Up Slightly

US natural gas futures climbed to $2.70 per MMBtu, supported by a drop in output over the past couple of weeks and near-record gas flows to US LNG export plants, but were still close to their lowest level since October 2024. Average daily output dropped by approximately 3.9 bcfd over the last fortnight to a 10-week low of 108.3 bcfd. Simultaneously, gas deliveries to major US LNG terminals rose to 18.9 bcfd so far in April, positioning the month for a potential record high. However, the upside remains capped by a persistent storage surplus. Unseasonably mild spring weather has facilitated aggressive inventory injections, pushing stockpiles to an estimated 7% above the five-year average during the week ended April 17. Looking ahead, meteorologists forecast near-normal temperatures through early May, and analysts expect storage levels to stay elevated.

US natural gas futures rose to $2.71 per MMBtu, supported by a recent drop in output and expectations of stronger demand over the next two weeks, but were still close to their lowest level since October 2024. Average production fell by about 3.2 bcfd over the past four days to a preliminary 10-week low of 108.0 bcfd, driven largely by declines in Louisiana and Ohio. At the same time, flows to major US LNG export terminals increased to 18.9 bcfd in April so far, up from 18.6 bcfd in March and near record levels. However, the Energy Information Administration reported a storage build of 59 billion cubic feet for the week ended April 10, exceeding forecasts and well above both last year’s increase and the five-year average. The larger build was attributed to mild weather limiting heating demand, with forecasts pointing to continued warmer-than-normal conditions through early May.

US natural gas futures fell to below $2.60 per MMBtu, their lowest level since late October 2024, as ample supply and subdued demand continued to weigh on prices. The EIA last week reported a 50 Bcf injection into storage for the week ended April 3, exceeding market expectations of a 46 Bcf build and accelerating from the previous week’s 36 Bcf increase. At the same time, mild weather forecasts across key US regions are keeping heating demand low, allowing utilities to continue adding gas to storage at an above-average pace for at least several more weeks. US natural gas prices remain largely insulated from Middle Eastern supply risks, amid near-record domestic production, comfortable storage levels, and constraints on LNG export capacity.