Natural Gas Falls to 17-Month Low

Natural gas futures fell 0.5% to around $2.65 per MMBtu on Friday, hovering near their lowest levels since late 2024, as ample supply and weak demand continued to weigh on prices. The EIA reported a 50 Bcf injection into storage, accelerating from the previous 36 Bcf build and reinforcing expectations of a well-supplied market. At the same time, mild weather forecasts across key US regions are keeping heating demand subdued, while production remains near record highs, adding further downward pressure. Ample supply and low heating demand drove drove natural gas prices to fall 28% year-to-date.

US natural gas futures held steady at $2.67 per MMBtu on Friday, the lowest level since November 2024, pressured by a larger-than-expected storage build last week and mild weather forecasts. The EIA reported a 50 Bcf injection into storage for the week ended April 3, above market expectations of a 46 Bcf build. The increase compares with a 53 Bcf injection in the same week last year and a five-year average build of 13 Bcf. Also, forecasts point to above-normal temperatures through at least April 24, keeping gas demand subdued over the next two weeks. On the geopolitical front, markets are monitoring weekend negotiations in Islamabad, where a US delegation led by Vice President JD Vance is scheduled to meet Iranian officials. The talks come after Israeli strikes in Lebanon put at risk a fragile ceasefire reached earlier this week. Despite the uncertainty, US gas prices remain insulated due to strong domestic production, with export facilities already operating near their limits.

US natural gas futures hovered around $2.72 per MMBtu, near their lowest level since November 2024, as milder weather forecasts signaled weaker demand. Temperatures projected to stay mostly warmer than normal through April 23, keeping heating needs subdued. Analysts noted that the early spring warmth has enabled larger-than-usual storage injections, with inventories projected to reach about 5% above normal for the week ended April 3, up from 3% above normal the previous week. Meanwhile, Israeli strikes in Lebanon raised doubts over whether President Trump’s ceasefire agreement with Iran would hold. The latest attack prompted Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz, though the White House denies the waterway is closed. Despite the geopolitical uncertainty, US natural gas remain largely insulated from the overseas disruptions, as domestic export terminals are already operating near full capacity.