US Natgas Prices Fall to 4-Month Low

US natural gas futures fell below $3 per MMBtu, their lowest level since October, as warmer weather expectations dampened demand prospects. Updated forecasts point to above average temperatures across much of the western United States through the end of the month, reducing the need for heating and easing consumption from power plants. With winter nearing its close, traders see a lower chance of a late season cold spell that could tighten supplies. At the same time, production remains elevated, with Lower 48 output averaging 108.7 billion cubic feet per day in February, up from 106.3 bcfd in January.Storage was about 6% below normal in mid February, but analysts expect the deficit to narrow to around 1% after mild weather limited withdrawals. Still, LNG export flows have strengthened to 18.7 bcfd and are on track for a monthly record.

US natural gas futures pared gains to around 3.06 dollars per MMBtu after rising more than 4% earlier in the session, as traders reassessed demand strength against ample supply. Prices initially climbed on expectations that a powerful winter storm in the Northeast would lift heating demand, with a severe snowstorm shutting schools and disrupting flights, boosting consumption for heating and power generation. LNG exports also supported the move, as pipeline flows to export plants reached 20.2 billion cubic feet on Sunday, about 24% higher than a year ago and near record levels, while average flows to the nine major facilities rose to 18.6 bcfd in February. Still, forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration point to warmer than normal temperatures in coming weeks. Production also hit a record 108.7 bcfd in the Lower 48, signaling strong supply that may cap further gains.

US natural gas futures rose more than 4% to around $3.17 per MMBtu, extending gains from the previous session, as cold weather forecasts for the Northeast increased short-term heating demand. A powerful winter storm has disrupted flights and closed schools, boosting near-term consumption for both heating and power generation. At the same time, pipeline flows to US LNG export plants climbed to 20.2 bcfd, roughly 24% higher than a year ago and near all-time highs, supporting the market amid ongoing tight supply conditions. Despite the intraday gains, traders remain cautious as warmer-than-normal temperatures are expected across most of the country over the next two weeks, while US natural gas production reached a record earlier this month, which could cap prices in the near term. Traders are now focused on storm developments, LNG export volumes, and production trends.