US Natgas Prices Climb Further

US natural gas prices climbed to $2.78/MMBtu as forecasts pointed to prolonged and intense heat across the southern and western parts of the country. Particularly high temperatures in Texas are driving greater air-conditioning use, increasing electricity demand and placing additional pressure on gas-fired power plants and the regional grid. Houston temperatures are expected to average around 100°F between August 20 and 23, while peak demand on the Texas power grid could reach a new record as wind generation declines. However, the price gains were limited by exceptionally strong domestic production. Average output in the Lower 48 states has reached 111.6 billion cubic feet per day in August, surpassing July’s record of 110.7 bcfd. Strong production and relatively mild weather earlier this year have also kept inventories above the five-year average since March. Meanwhile, gas flows to the nine major US LNG export facilities are averaging 17.2 bcfd in August, unchanged from July.

US natural gas prices fell 2% to around $2.68 per million British thermal units on Monday, their lowest level since August 7, as milder weather forecasts and expectations for larger storage injections weighed on the market. Recent weather models have moderated, pointing to less intense heat across much of the country in the coming weeks. This is expected to reduce demand for gas-fired power generation, particularly for air-conditioning, while allowing inventories to build at a faster pace. Strong domestic production is adding further downward pressure, with average output in the Lower 48 states reaching 111.6 billion cubic feet per day so far in August, exceeding July’s monthly record of 110.7 bcfd. Meanwhile, average gas flows to the nine major US LNG export facilities rose to 17.3 bcfd in August, compared with 17.2 bcfd in July.

US natural gas prices dropped 3% to around $2.65 per million British thermal units on Monday, hovering near three-month lows, weighed down by robust production and comfortable inventory levels. An EIA report last week showed energy firms injected 36 bcf of gas into storage in the week ended August 7, larger than market expectations of a 31 bcf build and the five-year average increase of 33 bcf. On top of that, production in the Lower 48 states averaged a record 111.3 bcfd in August so far, up from 110.7 bcfd in July, keeping inventories above their five-year average since March. Adding to the downward pressure, gas flows to the nine major LNG export facilities eased to 17.1 bcfd so far this month from 17.2 bcfd in July, reducing the volume of gas processed for export and leaving more supply available to the domestic market. These factors offset support from weather-driven demand, with forecasts calling for hotter-than-normal weather through the end of August.