US Natgas Prices Little Changed

US natural gas futures rose to around $3.23 per MMBtu driven by strong LNG export demand and continued heavy storage withdrawals. Energy firms withdrew 249 billion cubic feet of gas from storage in the week to February 6, following a record 360 bcf draw the previous week, as prolonged Arctic cold boosted heating demand. Although the latest withdrawal was slightly below forecasts, it was far larger than the 111 bcf draw a year earlier and well above the five year average of 146 bcf. LNG demand remained robust, with flows to the eight major US export plants averaging 18.5 bcfd so far in February, close to record levels. Domestic output also edged higher to 107.6 bcfd, up from 106.3 bcfd in January. However, weather forecasts point to mostly warmer than normal conditions through late February, which could ease demand and limit further price gains.

US natural gas futures hovered around $3.1 per MMBtu, near the lowest since January 16, as warmer weather forecasts and rising production weighed on prices. Meteorologists expect mostly above-normal temperatures across the US through February 26, reducing heating demand after the recent extreme cold. Output in the Lower 48 states increased to around 107.5 bcfd so far in February from 106.3 bcfd in January, improving supply. A record 360 bcf storage withdrawal during the late January Arctic blast pushed inventories to around 1% below seasonal norms and likely near 6% below normal in early February. However, analysts expect mild weather in the coming weeks to narrow that deficit by early March. LNG export demand remains strong, with flows to the eight major US export plants averaging 18.5 bcfd in February, up from 17.8 bcfd in January and matching record levels, limiting deeper declines.

US natural gas futures rose to $3.17 per MMBtu on Tuesday after two consecutive sessions of losses, supported by near-record LNG export flows that boosted demand. Average gas flows to the eight major US LNG export plants climbed to 18.5 bcfd so far in February from 17.8 bcfd in January, matching the monthly record set in December and tightening domestic supply. However, prices remain close to their lowest since January 16 as forecasts point to warmer weather and lower heating demand over the next two weeks. Production has also increased, with Lower 48 output rising to about 107.4 bcfd so far in February from 106.3 bcfd in January. Recent Arctic weather drove a record 360 bcf storage withdrawal and pushed inventories to around 1% below normal, with continued cold likely widening the deficit to about 6% below seasonal averages. However, milder temperatures expected through late February could reduce the storage deficit by March.