Lumber Hits 25-month Low

Lumber futures fell to around $510 per thousand board feet, reaching its lowest level since September 2025, as expectations grew that tariffs on Canadian lumber could be reduced. A Democratic sweep of the US Congress raised prospects for support to repeal the duties, while the Trump administration has yet to secure a trade agreement with Canada amid ongoing negotiations. The removal of tariffs could increase US lumber supply and place further downward pressure on prices. The US Commerce Department previously lowered antidumping and countervailing duties on Canadian softwood to 24.75% from 35.16%, although a separate 10% tariff keeps the total rate elevated at 34.75%. Meanwhile, prolonged trade barriers continue to weigh on the already weak US housing market, while mill closures across North America could tighten supply. Housing demand remains constrained by mortgage rates above 7% and high construction costs, although rates have declined for a third consecutive week.

Lumber decreased to 497.50 USD/1000 board feet, the lowest since September 2024. Over the past 4 weeks, Lumber lost 7.41%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 5.48%.

Lumber futures fell below $520 per thousand board feet, moving back toward their lowest level in more than two years, as US-Canada trade talks revived expectations of a potential tariff deal. The Trump administration is seeking an agreement with Canada on trade barriers, including lumber tariffs. Removing these duties could increase US supply and weigh on prices. The US Commerce Department previously lowered antidumping and countervailing duties on Canadian softwood to 24.75% from 35.16%, although a separate 10% tariff keeps the total rate at 34.75%. Meanwhile, prolonged trade barriers continue to weigh on the already weak US housing market, while mill closures across North America could tighten supply. Low prices and subdued demand may also prompt producers to cut output as profitability comes under pressure. Housing demand remains constrained by mortgage rates above 7%, high construction costs and labour shortages, although rates have declined for a third consecutive week.