Lumber Hits 17-week Low

Lumber decreased to 560.00 USD/1000 board feet, the lowest since April 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Lumber lost 12.07%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 0.18%.

Lumber futures fell below $570 per thousand board feet, nearing a five-month low as the escalating Canada-US trade war weighed on demand. Canada announced counter-tariffs on several US goods, including lumber, stating that the measures were intended to protect Canadian industries. Prime Minister Carney said he remained open to negotiations but would not accept a subordinate position to the US. The dispute is weighing on the forest sector of both countries, with lumber prices rising sharply following the tariff announcement. More than 20 sawmills across British Colombia have closed since 2023, while seasonal renovation activity in the US is also facing pressure from elevated prices. Meanwhile, persistently high inflation has reduced homeownership affordability and kept mortgage rates elevated, while construction spending remains subdued. US housing starts fell 12.4% in July, driven by a sharp decline in lumber-intensive single-family construction, further weakening demand.

Lumber futures fell below $580 per thousand board feet, retreating from a two-week high as hopes for a Canada-US trade deal faded. Negotiations had broken down just before the planned tariff deadline on Saturday, with the two sides discussing a deal that would have removed a 10% tariff on lumber. The US had earlier imposed 50% tariffs on several Canadian lumber-related products, while softwood lumber was excluded, although existing duties of around 35% continued to weigh on demand. US demand for Canadian lumber fell 1.7% in the first half of the year, while its market share declined slightly. The Canadian government sees little prospect of negotiations resuming, although its counter-tariffs are not due to take effect until September 8th, potentially leaving room for further negotiations. Meanwhile, weakness in the US housing market added pressure, with mortgage rates near one-year highs and housing starts falling 12.4% in July, driven by a sharp decline in single-family construction.