Lumber Near One-Month High

Lumber futures were near $600 per thousand board in May, not far from the highest level in over one month, as tight supply offset muted activity in the housing sector. The US lumber market remained in in a tight supply backdrop as domestic production has not expanded fast enough to make up for the drop in Canadian imports following the tariffs on Canada. The latest data indicated that Canada still accounted for up to 30% of domestic supply. The US Commerce Department recently proposed reducing combined duties on Canadian lumber to 24.8% from 35.2%, but an additional 10% Section 232 tariff keeps the effective burden near 35%. On top of that, wildfires and production disruptions in Canada magnified an already tight availability of wood, as British Columbia recently introduced emergency measures to boost timber availability after wildfire and storm damage threatened output.

Lumber increased to 593.50 USD/1000 board feet, the highest since April 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Lumber gained 1.38%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 2%.

Lumber futures have been trading below $600 per thousand board feet since early April, as weaker consumer sentiment and uncertainty surrounding developments in the Middle East weigh on demand. At the same time, supply constraints in several regions have partially offset the decline in demand. Profitability for Canadian mills remains under pressure from elevated duties and tariffs. The US has recently outlined preliminary antidumping and countervailing duties on Canadian softwood lumber, with the antidumping rate reduced from 20.6% to 10.7% and the countervailing duty trimmed from 14.6% to 14.2%, bringing the combined rate to about 25.9%. Including an existing 10% Section 232 tariff, total effective duties on Canadian imports are expected to remain near 35.9% once they take effect in August. Despite these measures aimed at supporting domestic producers, US sawmill utilisation remains relatively weak at around 64%, with capacity use trending lower since 2017.