Lumber Falls to 5-Week Low

Lumber decreased to 578.50 USD/1000 board feet, the lowest since January 2026. Over the past 4 weeks, Lumber lost 5.78%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 5.48%.

Lumber futures fell toward $580 per thousand board feet, their lowest level in five weeks, as weakening residential construction demand met heavy seasonal inventories and aggressive dealer discounting. US housing starts for December printed at a 1.404 million SAAR, while full-year 2025 activity was essentially flat versus 2024. At the same time, single-family starts are down roughly 7% year on year and single-family units under construction have dropped 8.4%, reducing near-term framing lumber consumption. In Canada, January home sales declined 5.8%, reinforcing softer North American demand conditions. On the supply side, winter storms slowed jobsite activity more than mill production, leaving distributors and secondary sellers with elevated yard inventories that have been cleared at discounted prices, in some cases below replacement cost. The combination of slower construction drawdowns and persistent supply has widened basis levels, accelerated destocking across key hubs.

Lumber futures held above $595 per thousand board feet, holding the rebound from a near four week low of $585.5 on February 6th as tightening supply met improving seasonal demand. The market’s already thin supply cushion has narrowed further just as pre spring restocking and early signs of firmer construction activity lifted near term orders, leaving limited slack and amplifying even modest buying flows. On the supply side, North American output has been constrained by mill curtailments and closures, fibre shortages in parts of British Columbia, and other production disruptions, alongside slower export flows linked to duties and shifting trade routes, all of which have reduced shipments into key consuming regions. As a result, inventories and operating rates sit below typical seasonal levels, increasing the market’s sensitivity to incremental demand. At the same time, some builders have resumed projects amid mortgage rate volatility and a slight easing in longer dated yields.