Lumber Drops Below $530

2026-01-06 14:29 By Felipe Alarcon 1 min. read

Lumber futures slid below $530 per thousand board feet, testing the lowest levels since October 2024, as weak near-term demand collided with abundant and re-emerging supply.

Homebuilding activity remains subdued and mortgage borrowing costs are still elevated, restraining new starts and repair and remodel demand, while US housing starts have softened and 30-year mortgage rates entered January little changed near the mid-6% range.

At the same time structural supply pressures are returning, with several panel and OSB mills ramping up or preparing to add capacity and shifts in North American output seeing Canadian curtailments largely offset by higher production in the US South, keeping physical availability ample and capping any upside.

In the meantime, inventory and futures market activity increased over the holiday period, amplifying downside moves when buyers stayed sidelined after year-end and seasonal restocking remained muted.

Lumber Commodity

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Lumber Rises to One-Month High

Lumber futures rose to $540 per thousand board feet, their highest level in nearly a month, as Hurricane Isaias threatened supplies across key producing regions. The storm swept through the US Gulf Coast, causing major power outages in Alabama and Mississippi, both significant lumber-producing states, raising concerns over supply disruptions and pressuring prices. Lumber supplies were already constrained by escalating trade tensions between the US and Canada. Ottawa had announced counter-tariffs of 25% on US lumber and 50% on plywood in response to US tariffs on several lumber-related products. US forestry groups have long accused Canada of distorting the market, arguing that the largely public owned Canadian forestland gives domestic producers a cost advantage. However, gains remain tempered by weakness in the US housing market. Mortgage rates have climbed to 7.4%, their highest in nearly three years, raising borrowing costs for homebuyers and weighing on housing demand.

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Lumber Drops to Lowest Level in Two Years

Lumber futures fell below $527 per thousand board feet, reaching their lowest level in two years, as rising borrowing costs weighed on housing demand. Growing concerns over inflationary pressures and government debt have strengthened expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates and fueled a broader sell-off in the bond market, pushing sovereign yields to their highest levels in over two decades. As a result, mortgage rates climbed to 7.3%, their highest level in three years, further straining an already weak housing market. Although lacking any particular economic significance, economists refer to the 7% threshold as a psychological ceiling. Providing an offsetting pressure, Ottawa had announced counter-tariffs of 25% on US lumber and 50% on plywood following US tariffs on several lumber-related goods. US forestry groups have long accused Canada of distorting the market, as Canadian forestland is largely publicly owned, allowing its lumber to be sold at lower prices.

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