Lumber Drops Below $530

2026-01-06 14:29 By Felipe Alarcon 1 min. read

Lumber futures slid below $530 per thousand board feet, testing the lowest levels since October 2024, as weak near-term demand collided with abundant and re-emerging supply.

Homebuilding activity remains subdued and mortgage borrowing costs are still elevated, restraining new starts and repair and remodel demand, while US housing starts have softened and 30-year mortgage rates entered January little changed near the mid-6% range.

At the same time structural supply pressures are returning, with several panel and OSB mills ramping up or preparing to add capacity and shifts in North American output seeing Canadian curtailments largely offset by higher production in the US South, keeping physical availability ample and capping any upside.

In the meantime, inventory and futures market activity increased over the holiday period, amplifying downside moves when buyers stayed sidelined after year-end and seasonal restocking remained muted.



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