Iron Ore Rises as Steel Output Rebounds

Iron ore futures climbed above CNY 680 per ton, recovering from four-year lows amid stronger crude steel production and better-than-expected economic growth in China. Official data showed that China’s daily crude steel output increased 1.9% month over month to 2.45 million tons in September, marking the first monthly rise since June, supported by robust exports and expectations of stronger seasonal domestic demand. Meanwhile, China’s economy grew 4.5% year over year in the third quarter, accelerating from 4.3% in the previous quarter and exceeding forecasts of 4.4%. However, underlying market conditions continued to weigh on iron ore, with ample global supplies, expanding mining capacity, and rising shipments expected in the fourth quarter. Sentiment was further dampened by the World Steel Association’s forecast of a 0.1% contraction in global steel demand in 2026, reversing its April projection of 0.3% growth.

Iron ore futures fell toward CNY 670 per ton, touching fresh four-year lows as increased blast furnace maintenance in China and abundant global supply weighed on prices. Industry data showed that projected hot metal production losses from blast furnace maintenance increased for a third consecutive week during October 10–16, with cumulative losses rising by more than 270,000 tons since late September. Meanwhile, iron ore inventories at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil climbed by 1.99 million tons to 12.58 million tons in the week ended October 11. Global mining capacity is also expanding, while producers are increasing fourth-quarter shipments to meet quarterly and annual targets. Further dampening sentiment, the World Steel Association forecast a 0.1% contraction in global steel demand in 2026, reversing its April projection of 0.3% growth amid weakening demand in China and disruptions linked to the US-Iran conflict.

Iron ore futures fell toward CNY 680 per ton, approaching four-year lows as abundant global supply, elevated Chinese inventories and falling shipping costs continued to pressure prices. Global mining capacity is expanding, while producers are boosting shipments in the fourth quarter to meet quarterly and annual targets. Iron ore shipments and arrivals at Chinese ports have also remained elevated, supported by a significant increase in volumes from smaller mining operations. Meanwhile, freight costs continued to ease, with industry data showing the Capesize C5 route from Australia to China declining by $0.64 per ton and the C3 route from Brazil to China falling by $0.37 per ton on Monday. Adding to the bearish outlook, the World Steel Association projected global steel demand would contract by 0.1% in 2026, reversing its April forecast for 0.3% growth amid weakening demand in China and disruptions stemming from the US-Iran conflict.