Iron Ore Falls on Signs of Ample Supply

Iron ore futures dropped toward CNY 740 per ton, hovering near three-week lows as evidence of abundant global supply continued to pressure prices. Imported iron ore inventories at Chinese ports remained high, while stockpiles at Chinese steel mills climbed 8% last week. Data also showed that Western Australia’s Pilbara Ports, the world’s largest iron ore export hub, handled more than 800 million tons of cargo during the 2025-2026 financial year, with iron ore shipments totaling about 759.4 million tons. That surpassed the previous record of 775.7 million tons set in the 2024-2025 financial year. Meanwhile, Port Hedland handled 580.4 million tons of cargo over the same period, while Dampier processed 178.3 million tons. On the demand side, investors are awaiting updates from the Politburo meeting in Beijing for potential stimulus measures that could provide support to the Chinese economy.

Iron ore futures slipped below CNY 750 per ton, resuming their decline as seasonally soft demand and weakening steel mill margins in top consumer China continued to weigh on the market. A number of Chinese steelmakers began maintenance work on production equipment, curbing demand for raw materials. Industry data also showed average daily hot metal output, a key indicator of iron ore consumption, fell for a third consecutive week to 2.38 million tons as of July 23, the lowest level since April 3. Meanwhile, investors are awaiting the upcoming Politburo meeting for potential stimulus measures that could provide support to the economy. Separately, Fortescue Executive Chairman Andrew Forrest called on China and Australia to engage in fair negotiations as the miner faces growing pressure from Beijing’s state-backed iron ore buyer over prolonged supply talks.

Iron ore futures hovered above CNY 750 per ton, recovering after touching two-week lows as resilient Chinese steel production and robust import demand supported prices despite weakness in the property sector. China's crude steel output averaged 2.79 million tons per day in June, the highest since March, while iron ore imports climbed 6.4% year-on-year to a six-month high of 112.69 million tons. Demand for imported ore was further underpinned by lower domestic production and inventory restocking, with port stockpiles declining to 156.6 million tons in the week ended July 17 from a record 166.9 million tons in mid-March. However, gains remained capped by ample global supply, the ramp-up of Guinea's Simandou project, and continued weakness in China's property market, where first-half real estate investment fell 18%, and construction starts dropped 23.4% year-on-year. Optimism over further Beijing stimulus following softer-than-expected second-quarter growth also supported sentiment.