Iron Ore Resumes Decline

Iron ore futures fell toward CNY 750 per ton, extending their recent decline following reports that state-backed China Mineral Resources Group permitted several steel mills to purchase cargoes from BHP Group, signaling a potential easing in a months-long commercial dispute. The development came after a visit to China by BHP’s incoming chief executive officer, Brandon Craig, who held meetings with executives from China Baowu Steel Group and CMRG. Data also showed that Chinese imports of iron ore and concentrates rose 11.5% year-on-year to 104.74 Mt in March, partly driven by geopolitical factors as shipments originally bound for routes through the Middle East or nearby corridors were redirected toward East Asian markets. Meanwhile, supply from Australia rebounded following earlier weather-related disruptions caused by Cyclone Narelle.

Iron ore futures climbed toward CNY 760 per ton, recovering part of last week’s losses as Chinese steel mills ramped up production. Sharp declines in raw material costs have improved mill profitability, supporting higher output of molten iron. Analysts also expect further restocking as iron ore consumption picks up while inventories at steel mills remain relatively low. Industry data showed stockpiles at major Chinese ports edged down 0.16% week-on-week as of April 10. Supply tightened temporarily after weather-related disruptions in Australia reduced import volumes at 47 ports by over 500,000 tons, though shipments are expected to rebound as delays ease. Meanwhile, oil prices surged again after US-Iran peace talks in Islamabad over the weekend failed to produce a deal. President Donald Trump also announced plans to blockade the Strait of Hormuz and is reportedly considering renewed strikes on Iran, raising the risk of a broader escalation in the global energy crisis.

Iron ore futures remained below CNY 760 per ton, hovering near five-week lows as expanding global supply and high port inventories in China continued to pressure prices. Industry data showed shipments of the key steelmaking raw material from major exporters Australia and Brazil surged more than 30% week-on-week to 24.48 million tons as of April 7, following an easing of weather-related disruptions. Analysts also expect Chinese demand for iron ore to soften this year as steel consumption slows, pointing to the country’s prolonged property sector downturn. Narrowing steel margins in China have further dampened demand for the raw material. Meanwhile, data indicated that average daily hot metal output, a key proxy for iron ore consumption, rose for a fourth consecutive week by 0.8% to 2.39 million tons as of April 9, though the pace of growth eased from a 2.7% increase in the prior week.