Iron Ore Drops to 4-Week Low

Iron ore futures fell below CNY 790 per ton, hitting a four-week low as shipments from major suppliers surged, while a two-week ceasefire in the Middle East eased supply disruption concerns. Industry data showed that shipments of the key steelmaking ingredient from major producers Australia and Brazil jumped by over 30% week-on-week to 24.48 million tons as of April 7, as weather-related disruptions subsided. However, analysts noted that Chinese iron ore demand is likely to weaken this year as steel consumption slows, citing a prolonged property sector crisis in China. Increased anti-dumping measures and trade barriers also threaten China’s ability to sustain its steel exports. Meanwhile, the US, Iran and Israel agreed to a two-week ceasefire to allow negotiations for a potential deal to end the war.

Iron ore futures climbed back above CNY 800 per ton, halting a recent decline as trading resumed in China following a holiday-extended weekend, while investors continued to assess uncertainties surrounding the Middle East conflict. Markets are focused on President Donald Trump’s deadline for Iran to reach a deal or face attacks on civilian infrastructure, with the risk of a prolonged conflict fueling concerns over supply disruptions and a global economic slowdown. Iron ore also drew support from demand optimism after calls from Beijing to accelerate energy-related construction projects. President Xi Jinping highlighted plans to develop a new energy system to strengthen national energy security, including the construction of a major hydropower dam on the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau.

Iron ore futures fell below CNY 800 per ton, retreating after a brief rebound as renewed geopolitical uncertainty rattled markets. Prices came under pressure following Donald Trump’s rare prime-time address on the Middle East conflict, in which he said the US is “very close” to completing its military objectives in Iran while warning that strikes could escalate. Volatility in oil markets added further strain, with Brent crude up roughly 60% since the conflict began, and gasoline prices also climbing. Losses were partly cushioned by tightening supply and other external factors. Iron ore had previously posted its strongest monthly gain since September 2024, supported by weather-related disruptions in Australia and a pricing dispute involving BHP Group. Market attention is also turning to potential fuel shortages and the ongoing cyclone season in the key exporting region, which continue to provide underlying support for prices.