Heating Oil Set for Record Monthly Gain

Heating oil hovered around $4.20 per gallon, on track for its largest monthly gain on record of more than 40%, tracking crude prices as roughly 20% of global oil flows remain disrupted. The supply shock stems from the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, while renewed Houthi threats in the Red Sea raise the risk of disruptions along another key chokepoint. Together, these factors could further constrain Middle Eastern energy flows, with two of the world’s main trade and supply corridors at risk. Throughout the month, reports of potential talks also surfaced, including recent indications that President Trump is now willing to end the military campaign in Iran even if the Strait remains largely closed, potentially increasing Tehran’s leverage over the key maritime route. However, markets remained skeptical, as this shift followed earlier threats to strike Iran’s electricity plants, oil facilities, and desalination infrastructure if the passageway is not reopened.

Heating oil futures oscillated near $4.5 per gallon as the physical displacement of roughly 20% of global oil transit continues to paralyze the distribution of middle distillates. This supply-side crisis is driven by the near-total shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz and fresh Houthi threats to Red Sea shipping which have forced global inventories down to critical levels. While tentative signals of a diplomatic breakthrough in the five-week Middle East conflict offer a potential ceiling the rally remains anchored by a massive risk premium following President Trump's ultimatum to target Iranian export hubs. The arrival of 10,000 additional US troops and the grounding of vessels in key waterways have created a price floor that outweighs the dampening effect of high financing costs and growth prospects. Consequently, heating oil remains tethered to WTI crude as the market awaits confirmation of a peace deal before pricing out the threat of total energy infrastructure destruction.

US heating oil futures climbed above $4.60 per gallon, moving back toward its record level, as tensions in the Middle East intensified. The rally has put prices on course for a record monthly increase of more than 50%, driven by major disruptions to energy supply following the near shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. In recent developments, Iran-aligned Houthi forces in Yemen have entered the conflict, stating they will continue operations until strikes on Iran and its affiliated groups cease. Their involvement raises fresh concerns for oil markets, with ongoing Red Sea disruptions and potential risks to shipments from Yanbu threatening to further squeeze supply. At the same time, the deployment of additional US troops to the region has heightened worries about a possible ground escalation. The conflict has now stretched into its fifth week, reducing hopes for a swift resolution.