Gold Set for Weekly Gain

Gold firmed around $5,190 per ounce on Friday, following a two-day gain and on track for a fourth consecutive weekly rise as investors weighed US trade policy and geopolitical risks. President Trump’s new 10% global tariffs took effect earlier this week, with the potential to rise to 15% for certain countries following the Supreme Court’s ruling against broader duties. Meanwhile, Washington and Tehran are set to resume negotiations next week following progress on Thursday, paving the way for further diplomacy, though a US source said officials left disappointed. On the monetary policy front, traders are watching Fed signals, with Chicago Fed’s Austan Goolsbee citing possible rate cuts if inflation eases, while Governor Stephen Miran supports a full 1-point cut in 2026. Still, the probability of a rate reduction by June has fallen to 50%, and expectations of a third cut by year-end have nearly vanished.

Gold prices stabilized around $5,170 per ounce, paring early session gains as markets weighed escalating US trade protectionism and Middle East geopolitical friction against a resilient dollar. Bullion found support after the administration invoked Section 122 to impose a 10% global tariff following a February 20th Supreme Court ruling that struck down previous emergency duties. This trade pivot reignited inflation fears and safe haven demand as the White House signaled a potential hike to 15%. However demand for gold was capped as January PCE inflation stayed sticky at 3% and the Fed signaled no immediate need for rate cuts. On the supply side central bank accumulation remained a core anchor with monthly net purchases averaging 60 tonnes. While safe haven inflows grew due to stalled US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva, a 212,000 rise in weekly jobless claims in February 2026 offered a mixed signal.

Gold held firm above $5,180 per ounce on Thursday, extending gains from the previous session and hovering near an almost four-week high, as markets weighed geopolitical tensions and uncertainties surrounding US trade policies. The buildup of US troops in the Middle East kept investors on edge ahead of nuclear talks in Geneva, while Washington stepped up pressure on Iran by sanctioning entities involved in oil and weapons exports. At the same time, the Trump administration moved to maintain its global tariff strategy, raising concerns among trading partners. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the president plans to raise tariffs to 15% “where appropriate,” following a 10% levy that took effect after the Supreme Court struck down earlier reciprocal tariffs. On the monetary policy front, persistent inflation concerns pushed traders to delay expectations of the Federal Reserve’s next rate cut to September.