Gold Holds Near Record High Amid US Data and Geopolitical Tensions

Gold prices slid over 2% to around $4,677 per ounce, snapping a four-day winning streak, as the US dollar and oil prices surged following President Donald Trump’s vow to intensify attacks on Iran. His remarks, confirming the US had "nearly accomplished" its military objectives but offering no end in sight to the month-long conflict, sparked inflation fears and reinforced expectations of higher interest rates. In a Wednesday address, President Trump declared that US forces had "nearly achieved" their objectives in Iran, yet stopped short of providing a timeline for ending the month-long war, instead vowing to hit Iran "extremely hard" in the coming "two to three weeks." On the other hand, Tehran dismissed his assertion that it had sought a ceasefire, reaffirming that the Strait of Hormuz remains firmly under IRGC Navy control. The dollar’s safe-haven rally weighed on dollar-denominated gold, which has now lost 13% of its value since the conflict began on February 28.

Gold prices slid more than 4% to around $4,580 per ounce on Thursday, ending a four-day gain, as the US dollar rebounded after President Donald Trump offered no definitive timeline for ending the Middle East conflict. In his remarks, Trump said Washington’s core strategic objectives in Iran were approaching completion but also warned that the military campaign could continue with more intense action over the next two to three weeks, a stance that strengthened the US dollar. The greenback has recently emerged as a safe-haven asset, putting pressure on dollar-denominated precious metals. Oil prices also resumed their advance, reinforcing inflation concerns and expectations of tighter monetary policy. Traders have fully priced out the prospect of US rate cuts in 2026, a stark reversal from pre-war expectations of two cuts.

Gold prices edged above $4,790 per ounce on Thursday, holding onto a four-day gain near a two-week high, supported by a retreat in the US dollar amid hopes for a resolution to the Iran conflict. President Donald Trump appeared to signal a possible end to the US military operation in Iran, with attention now turning to his rare prime-time address later today, after more than a month of conflict. A White House official said he is expected to outline a two- to three-week timeline for concluding the operation. These developments helped oil prices pull back from recent highs and the dollar index retreat from a ten-month peak reached earlier this week. Gold has risen more than 6% so far this week, its largest gain in 10 weeks, as traders reassess the Federal Reserve’s monetary path, weighing the potential de-escalation of geopolitical tensions against renewed growth concerns and inflation worries.