Gasoline Prices Decline

US gasoline prices fell toward $3.20 per gallon as traders assessed the prospect of easing supply pressures following President Donald Trump’s claim of an immediate energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he was awaiting details of the deal, while Russia had yet to comment. Trump’s announcement followed his statement last week that Russia had agreed to supply diesel to global markets to help lower fuel prices, alongside his administration’s temporary easing of US sanctions on Russian fuel. Meanwhile, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol urged governments to accelerate planned diesel releases and consider boosting supplies. However, renewed strikes on Saudi Arabia’s infrastructure and tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz continued to threaten regional energy flows. Elsewhere, Gulf of Mexico oil producers were working to restore offshore output after Hurricane Isaias made landfall.

US gasoline futures traded around $3.30 per gallon, holding most of their recent gains amid persistent supply concerns. Tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and fresh US sanctions on Iran kept concerns over regional energy shipments elevated, although President Trump's pledge to avoid military action against Iran before the November 3 midterm elections offered some relief. Meanwhile, Hurricane Isaias prompted the shutdown of about 1.3 million barrels per day of oil production in the US Gulf of Mexico, or roughly 63% of regional output, adding to near-term supply risks. Russian refinery disruptions and diesel-export restrictions, alongside China's reported suspension of some October fuel exports, added to broader refined-product market tightness. However, EIA data showed US gasoline inventories unexpectedly rose by 382 thousand barrels in the week ended October 2, rebounding after two consecutive weekly draws, although stocks remained 6% below the five-year average.

US gasoline futures rose above $3.30 per gallon, recovering from the previous session’s losses, driven by persistent supply concerns. The potential for further escalation between the US and Iran, along with continued attacks on tankers in the Middle East, kept supply risks elevated despite improving regional shipments. Additionally, Hurricane Isaias threatened to disrupt refinery operations, with Gulf Coast refineries accounting for about half of US refining capacity of 18.2 million bpd. Russia’s restrictions on diesel exports and refinery disruptions, alongside China’s reported suspension of some October fuel exports, also tightened fuel markets. Offering some relief, EIA data showed US gasoline inventories unexpectedly rose by 382 thousand barrels in the week ending October 2, rebounding after two consecutive draws. The accelerated release of remaining IEA emergency oil stocks could also ease some supply pressures.