European Natural Gas Prices Climb to Two-Week High

European natural gas prices climbed above €94/MWh, hitting a two-week high, amid persistent Middle East tensions, colder weather expectations, and disruptions to Norwegian supplies. President Trump’s remarks that the US does not need a deal with Iran dampened hopes for a resolution to the conflict, while continued tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz heightened fears of prolonged shipping disruptions. Meanwhile, colder conditions are forecast across parts of Europe from November 17, with further cold spells possible toward late November and early December, likely driving up heating demand as the region enters winter. Norwegian gas deliveries to Europe dropped, partly due to unplanned outages at the Troll and Åsgard facilities. EU gas storage facilities were less than 72% full, compared with a five-year seasonal average of around 89%, leaving the region with a relatively thin supply buffer. Germany’s storage levels were below 60%.

European natural gas prices surged 7% to €92.70/MWh, driven by forecasts of colder weather, supply disruptions in Norway and persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Temperatures are expected to fall across Europe from November 17, with further cold spells possible in late November and early December, boosting heating demand. Meanwhile, Norwegian gas flows declined as outages intensified, particularly at the Troll field, where operator Gassco said the duration of the disruption remained uncertain. Supply concerns have been compounded by low storage levels: EU reserves stood below 72%, compared with a five-year seasonal average of 89%, while Germany’s stocks were below 60%. Geopolitical risks added further support after US President Donald Trump dismissed the need for a deal with Iran, while Tehran maintained a hardline stance on its enriched nuclear material.

European natural gas prices rose above €89/MWh, up from a one-month low of €82.5 hit on November 9, as concerns over tight winter supplies outweighed optimism about a potential resolution to the US-Iran conflict. Europe’s already low storage levels are declining rapidly amid colder weather, lower wind generation and increased heating demand. Net withdrawals last week rose nearly sixfold from the previous week, while EU storage stood below 72%, well under the five-year seasonal average of 89%; Germany’s reserves were below 60%. Supply pressures have been compounded by disruptions to Middle Eastern LNG exports, constrained Norwegian pipeline flows due to outages and intensifying competition from Asian buyers. However, hopes for de-escalation have improved after US President Donald Trump signaled that further strikes on Iran might not be necessary. Meanwhile, Qatar’s LNG loadings picked up in recent weeks, suggesting efforts to restore exports despite disruption around the Strait.