European Natural Gas Soars by 7%

European natural gas prices surged 7% to €92.70/MWh, driven by forecasts of colder weather, supply disruptions in Norway and persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Temperatures are expected to fall across Europe from November 17, with further cold spells possible in late November and early December, boosting heating demand. Meanwhile, Norwegian gas flows declined as outages intensified, particularly at the Troll field, where operator Gassco said the duration of the disruption remained uncertain. Supply concerns have been compounded by low storage levels: EU reserves stood below 72%, compared with a five-year seasonal average of 89%, while Germany’s stocks were below 60%. Geopolitical risks added further support after US President Donald Trump dismissed the need for a deal with Iran, while Tehran maintained a hardline stance on its enriched nuclear material.

European natural gas prices rose above €89/MWh, up from a one-month low of €82.5 hit on November 9, as concerns over tight winter supplies outweighed optimism about a potential resolution to the US-Iran conflict. Europe’s already low storage levels are declining rapidly amid colder weather, lower wind generation and increased heating demand. Net withdrawals last week rose nearly sixfold from the previous week, while EU storage stood below 72%, well under the five-year seasonal average of 89%; Germany’s reserves were below 60%. Supply pressures have been compounded by disruptions to Middle Eastern LNG exports, constrained Norwegian pipeline flows due to outages and intensifying competition from Asian buyers. However, hopes for de-escalation have improved after US President Donald Trump signaled that further strikes on Iran might not be necessary. Meanwhile, Qatar’s LNG loadings picked up in recent weeks, suggesting efforts to restore exports despite disruption around the Strait.

European natural gas prices extended their decline, falling to around €80/MWh, their lowest level in a month, amid growing hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the Middle East conflict. President Donald Trump said on Monday that there was “positive momentum” toward ending the war, adding that new strikes are quite unlikely. Still, European gas prices remain more than double their pre-conflict levels, as shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz have stranded nearly 20% of global LNG exports from the Persian Gulf, keeping the gas market tight ahead of winter. EU gas storage levels are below 73%, well under the five-year seasonal average of 90%, while Germany's inventories are less than 60% full. Colder weather, along with low wind and solar generation, has accelerated storage withdrawals, while Norwegian pipeline flows have remained below capacity due to unplanned outages. The tight supply situation has raised the prospect of intense competition with Asia for cargoes.