European Gas Prices Edge Down

European natural gas prices fell to around €41.7 per MWh as progress in US-Iran talks eased supply risks. The US on Monday authorized Iranian oil sales under a temporary 60-day licence following productive talks in Switzerland over the weekend. Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz also began increasing, with several vessels transiting the key waterway on Monday. Meanwhile, conflicting signals emerged after Iranian media denied US claims that Tehran had agreed to readmit IAEA inspectors or had accepted sanctions relief in exchange for reopening the strait and allowing renewed nuclear inspections. For Europe, concerns persisted over its ability to replenish gas inventories before next winter. European storage facilities are currently around 46.4% full, below the five-year average of more than 50% for this time of year. This left the market vulnerable, particularly as forecasts of hotter weather across Europe were expected to increase demand.

European natural gas prices climbed to as high as €43.4 per MWh before trimming gains to around €42.5, amid signs of progress in US–Iran talks. The two countries agreed on Monday to establish communication channels to keep the Strait of Hormuz open and end hostilities in Lebanon. The latest developments came after talks got off to a tense start after Iranian media reported that Tehran had suspended discussions following Trump's latest warning over Iran's support for Hezbollah. Still, investors remain concerned about Europe’s ability to replenish gas inventories ahead of winter. EU gas storage facilities are currently 45.56% full, compared with 54.38% at the same time last year and about 14% below the five-year average, while net injections in June continue to lag seasonal norms. This comes as high temperatures are expected across Europe, which is likely to boost cooling demand.

European natural gas prices rose 3.8% to around €42/MWh as market confidence in a swift supply recovery faded. Renewed attacks in Lebanon and the cancellation of planned talks aimed at solidifying a preliminary US-Iran truce weighed on sentiment. Although an earlier interim agreement between Washington and Tehran had briefly raised expectations of improved flows, shipping data showed no outbound tanker movements from the Persian Gulf on Friday morning after a short-lived increase in activity earlier in the week. Weather also supported prices, with forecasts of high temperatures across Europe expected to boost cooling demand. EU gas storage levels are currently around 45.56% full, compared with 54.38% a year earlier and 14% below the five-year average, while net injections in June are running below seasonal norms. Prices had fallen nearly 20% over the previous week on hopes that a US-Iran agreement would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore LNG flows from the Gulf.