TTF Prices Extend Gains

European natural gas prices climbed nearly 3% to around €43.2 per MWh on Monday, building on gains from the previous session, as tensions resurfaced following President Donald Trump's renewed threat to strike Iran. Talks between the two nations in Switzerland got off to a tense start after Iranian media reported that Tehran had suspended discussions following Trump's latest warning over Iran's support for Hezbollah, though reports indicated that discussions were continuing. European gas prices fell more than 13% last week after the US-Iran peace deal, though concerns remain over Europe’s inventories. EU gas storage facilities are currently 45.56% full, compared with 54.38% at the same time last year and about 14% below the five-year average, while net injections in June continue to lag seasonal norms. This comes as high temperatures are expected across Europe, which is likely to boost cooling demand.

European natural gas prices rose 3.8% to around €42/MWh as market confidence in a swift supply recovery faded. Renewed attacks in Lebanon and the cancellation of planned talks aimed at solidifying a preliminary US-Iran truce weighed on sentiment. Although an earlier interim agreement between Washington and Tehran had briefly raised expectations of improved flows, shipping data showed no outbound tanker movements from the Persian Gulf on Friday morning after a short-lived increase in activity earlier in the week. Weather also supported prices, with forecasts of high temperatures across Europe expected to boost cooling demand. EU gas storage levels are currently around 45.56% full, compared with 54.38% a year earlier and 14% below the five-year average, while net injections in June are running below seasonal norms. Prices had fallen nearly 20% over the previous week on hopes that a US-Iran agreement would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore LNG flows from the Gulf.

European natural gas prices rose to around €41.5 per MWh but remained on track for a weekly loss of more than 11% amid easing Middle East supply risks. An interim peace agreement between the US and Iran, signed on Wednesday, has seen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz begin returning to normal, with several vessels reportedly transiting the waterway on Thursday. The reopening of the strait sent European gas prices to a two-month low, erasing most of the war-driven gains. Qatar, the world’s largest LNG exporter, is preparing to rapidly resume production at its Ras Laffan facilities and expects output at sites unaffected by Iranian strikes to return to full capacity within a month. The resumption of LNG exports from the Persian Gulf could support Europe's efforts to replenish relatively low gas storage levels ahead of next winter.