TTF Prices Rise for 2nd Session

European natural gas futures rose more than 5% to around €42.3 per MWh on Tuesday, extending a 3.9% gain in the previous session, as markets focused on potential US Iran talks ahead of a fragile ceasefire deadline. Iran has yet to confirm participation in negotiations in Pakistan, with key disagreements unresolved, including access to the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict has already triggered a global energy crisis that could worsen if fighting intensifies. President Donald Trump said Vice President JD Vance is ready to attend talks but warned the US will not rush a deal and could resume military action if needed. The near closure of Hormuz has severely disrupted LNG flows, cutting roughly a fifth of global supply. Shipping remains largely halted after renewed attacks, with several Qatari LNG tankers unable to pass, leaving exports from the region effectively stalled since late February.

European natural gas futures fell 2% to below €40 per MWh on Tuesday, erasing part of the gains from the prior session as traders looked ahead to a second round of peace talks between the US and Iran. Iran is reportedly preparing to send a delegation after previously signaling reluctance to participate. However, uncertainty persists as President Trump said he is unlikely to extend the two-week ceasefire, which is set to expire on Wednesday, and reiterated that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed until a deal is reached. Traffic through the strait was halted again over the weekend as tensions escalated, with ships coming under fire and Iran warning that vessels attempting to pass through the waterway could be targeted. Several LNG tankers from Qatar were reported to have approached the strait in recent days but were either forced to turn back or remained idle. Since the war began in late February, no LNG exports have left the region, disrupting around 20% of global LNG supply.

European natural gas futures rose more than 4% to above €40 per MWh on Monday after surging as much as 11% in early Asian trading, reversing Friday’s losses as Iran once again shut the Strait of Hormuz in response to the ongoing US blockade of its ports. Tensions escalated further after the US fired on and disabled an Iranian-flagged cargo ship, prompting Tehran to launch drone attacks against some US military vessel and warn that ships attempting to pass the waterway would be attacked. Reports also suggested that Iran would not participate in a second round of peace talks, despite Trump’s threat of renewed airstrikes. The latest escalation came after Iran stated on Friday that the vital waterway had reopened. Several LNG tankers carrying Qatari fuel reportedly approached the strait in recent days but were forced to turn back or idled. Since the conflict began in late February, no LNG exports have left the region, disrupting roughly 20% of global LNG supply.