European Gas Prices Decline Again

European natural gas futures dropped toward €45 on Friday, wiping out the previous session’s gains to hit an over five-week low, as traders monitored the fragile Middle East ceasefire and upcoming US–Iran talks. President Donald Trump expressed optimism that a peace agreement with Iran was within reach, as a diplomatic delegation led by Vice President J.D. Vance prepared to travel to Pakistan for high-stakes negotiations aimed at ending the six-week conflict. However, Trump warned Tehran against imposing any tolls on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Qatar has reportedly begun preparations to restart LNG production at Ras Laffan after the ceasefire announcement. The facility has been offline since early March after being hit by Iranian strikes. Initial volumes could return in the coming days, though the pace of ramp-up will depend on whether LNG carriers can safely navigate the Strait.

European natural gas futures rose to €46.5 per MWh on Thursday, rebounding from a five-week low, as Israeli strikes on Lebanon added to uncertainty over whether the US ceasefire with Iran would hold. Iran once again blocked shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in protest, calling the latest attack a breach of the truce and continuing its strikes on Gulf states. A key point of contention remains whether the ceasefire terms extend to Lebanon, with Tehran and the US-Israeli side offering conflicting interpretations. Meanwhile, Qatar is reportedly mobilizing engineers and workers to restart output at the world’s largest LNG export facility, which has been offline since early March after Iranian strikes severely damaged capacity. While partial production could resume in the coming days, a significant recovery still depends on safe passage through the Strait.

European natural gas futures plunged 18% to around €44 per MWh on Wednesday, the lowest in five weeks, after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The deal eased fears over prolonged supply disruptions, though markets remain focused on how quickly flows can normalize through the route that handles roughly a fifth of global LNG and oil trade. In Qatar, efforts are underway to restart operations at the Ras Laffan complex, the world’s largest LNG export facility, which has been offline since early March following Iranian strikes that cut significant capacity. Engineers have begun preparations and some output could resume in the coming days, although a full recovery depends on safe passage through Hormuz. Recent failed attempts by LNG tankers to transit the strait highlight ongoing uncertainty, with Iran signaling conditional access while the US has called for a full and immediate reopening.