European Gas Prices Rebound

European natural gas futures rose to €46.5 per MWh on Thursday, rebounding from a five-week low, as Israeli strikes on Lebanon added to uncertainty over whether the US ceasefire with Iran would hold. Iran once again blocked shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in protest, calling the latest attack a breach of the truce and continuing its strikes on Gulf states. A key point of contention remains whether the ceasefire terms extend to Lebanon, with Tehran and the US-Israeli side offering conflicting interpretations. Meanwhile, Qatar is reportedly mobilizing engineers and workers to restart output at the world’s largest LNG export facility, which has been offline since early March after Iranian strikes severely damaged capacity. While partial production could resume in the coming days, a significant recovery still depends on safe passage through the Strait.

European natural gas futures plunged 18% to around €44 per MWh on Wednesday, the lowest in five weeks, after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The deal eased fears over prolonged supply disruptions, though markets remain focused on how quickly flows can normalize through the route that handles roughly a fifth of global LNG and oil trade. In Qatar, efforts are underway to restart operations at the Ras Laffan complex, the world’s largest LNG export facility, which has been offline since early March following Iranian strikes that cut significant capacity. Engineers have begun preparations and some output could resume in the coming days, although a full recovery depends on safe passage through Hormuz. Recent failed attempts by LNG tankers to transit the strait highlight ongoing uncertainty, with Iran signaling conditional access while the US has called for a full and immediate reopening.

European natural gas futures declined more than 15% to around €45 per MWh on Wednesday, the lowest level in five weeks, after President Donald Trump agreed to delay planned strikes on Iran for two weeks in exchange for Iran allowing safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The ceasefire came less than two hours before Trump’s deadline, after which he had threatened to “wipe out a whole civilization.” Iran said its military would coordinate transit through the Strait, while Trump noted that negotiations appeared to be making progress, citing a 10-point proposal from Iran that he described as a “workable basis” for a longer-term peace framework. The temporary pause offers both sides a window to reach a longer agreement to end the six-week-old war, which has severely disrupted global energy flows. Traffic through the waterway has fallen sharply since the conflict began in late February, while roughly 20% of global LNG supply from Qatar remains cut off.