EU Natural Gas Surges Again

European natural gas futures rose to €50 per MWh, recovering from an over three-week low after President Donald Trump's address on Iran dampened hopes for an imminent ceasefire. Trump warned that the US would strike Iran extremely hard over the next two to three weeks, and that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen “naturally” once the conflict ends, though he provided no concrete timeline or details. Iran on Wednesday also denied Trump’s claim that it had requested a ceasefire. Traffic through the Strait has been near a standstill since fighting began, disrupting roughly 20% of global LNG trade. Europe’s gas storage is running low, standing at 28%, heightening vulnerability as competition with Asia for LNG intensifies. EU officials have urged member states to prepare for prolonged disruptions and are considering reviving energy-crisis measures used in 2022. Price increases were capped by warmer weather and increased renewable power output, which reduces demand.

European natural gas futures dropped more than 5% toward €48 per MWh on Wednesday, extending the decline from the previous session, tracking broader weakness across energy markets amid hopes that the Middle East conflict may be nearing a resolution. President Donald Trump suggested that the war could end within two to three weeks; however, traders remain on edge as additional US troops are being deployed to the region and the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. Prices were also weighed down by warmer weather and increased energy output, which eased regional demand. Last month, European gas prices surged nearly 60%, marking the largest monthly increase since September 2021 amid concerns over deeper supply disruptions, as the war led to the closure of the Strait and the shutdown of the world’s largest LNG facility in Qatar.

European natural gas futures fell 7% to €53.3 per MWh as milder weather and stronger renewable output reduced demand across the region. Despite the pullback, prices are still up more than 60% in March, the biggest monthly increase since September 2021, driven by the Middle East conflict which has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for around a fifth of global LNG flows, and forced the closure of Qatar’s largest LNG facility. The war has now entered its fifth week with no clear signs of de escalation, raising concerns over deeper supply disruptions. President Donald Trump urged other nations to help secure the strait as Iran continued missile strikes across the Persian Gulf. Earlier reports showed President Trump keen to wind down military operations and pressure Tehran diplomatically into reopening the Strait of Hormuz.