TTF Prices Fall 7%, Still Up 60% in March

European natural gas prices fell 2% to below €88/MWh on Friday, their lowest level in two weeks, extending weekly losses to around 15% amid growing hopes of a diplomatic resolution to the Middle East conflict. Sentiment improved after Qatar’s Emir discussed de-escalation efforts with US President Donald Trump, reinforcing optimism following the Democrats’ gains in the US midterm elections. However, prices remain well above their pre-war levels, as the disruption of Middle Eastern LNG exports, which previously accounted for around a fifth of global supply, leaves Europe facing a tight market ahead of winter. EU gas storage has fallen to 74%, well below the five-year seasonal average of 90%, while Germany’s inventories are below 61%. Colder temperatures and weaker wind and solar generation have increased withdrawals, while Norwegian pipeline supplies remain constrained by outages. Competition for LNG is also expected to intensify as Asian buyers increase spot purchases.

European natural gas prices fell below €88/MWh on Friday, erasing earlier gains and returning to a two-week low amid hopes of a diplomatic resolution to the US-Iran war. However, an immediate deal remains uncertain, with key disagreements between the two sides still unresolved. Continued attacks on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz have also heightened concerns over Gulf LNG shipments, with the conflict disrupting nearly a fifth of global LNG supply. Europe’s energy balance remains tight ahead of winter, with EU gas storage at around 74%, well below the five-year seasonal average of 90%, while Germany’s reserves have fallen below 61%. Colder weather, coupled with low wind and solar generation, has prompted early withdrawals from storage, while reduced Norwegian pipeline flows due to outages have added to supply concerns. Prices are on track to drop by more than 15% this week, their first weekly decline in six weeks.

European natural gas prices rebounded to around €90/MWh from a two-week low of €88 on November 4, as persistent supply constraints continued to underpin the market. Despite the recent decline from record levels above €100/MWh, Europe’s energy balance remains fragile, with LNG deliveries from the Persian Gulf still disrupted by the Iran conflict. Tehran reported that a tanker had struck a mine in the Strait of Hormuz, while discussions with Oman are underway to restore shipping traffic. The conflict removed nearly a fifth of global LNG exports, leaving European inventories unusually low ahead of winter and intensifying competition with Asian buyers. EU storage levels have fallen to 74%, compared with a five-year seasonal average of 90%, while Germany’s reserves are below 61%. Colder temperatures and weaker wind and solar generation have increased withdrawals. Also, Norwegian pipeline supplies remain below capacity due to outages.