TTF Prices Fall 7%, Still Up 60% in March

European natural gas futures fell 7% to €53.3 per MWh as milder weather and stronger renewable output reduced demand across the region. Despite the pullback, prices are still up more than 60% in March, the biggest monthly increase since September 2021, driven by the Middle East conflict which has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for around a fifth of global LNG flows, and forced the closure of Qatar’s largest LNG facility. The war has now entered its fifth week with no clear signs of de escalation, raising concerns over deeper supply disruptions. President Donald Trump urged other nations to help secure the strait as Iran continued missile strikes across the Persian Gulf. Earlier reports showed President Trump keen to wind down military operations and pressure Tehran diplomatically into reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

European natural gas futures fell to €53.6 per MWh but remained on track for their largest monthly gain since September 2021. Prices have surged more than 70% this month as the Middle East war has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of global LNG flows, as well as the shutdown of the world’s largest LNG plant in Qatar. The conflict has now stretched into its fifth week with no indication of de-escalation, heightening fears of a deeper supply disruptions. President Trump warned that the US could target Iran’s electric plants, oil wells, and Kharg Island if a deal is not reached soon and if the Strait is not reopened. However, some upward pressure on prices was tempered by milder weather forecasts and stronger renewable output in Europe, which are curbing demand for natural gas.

European natural gas futures edged higher to around €55 per MWh as supply risks offset weaker demand, with geopolitical tensions remaining in focus. President Donald Trump said a deal to end military operations in Iran is likely but warned of major strikes on key infrastructure including Kharg Island if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. Energy markets had surged earlier as more US troops were deployed and Iran backed Houthi forces in Yemen entered the conflict, launching attacks on Israel and raising fears of supply disruptions. Around a fifth of global LNG typically passes through the strait, but traffic has nearly halted since late February. Despite elevated risks supporting prices, gains are more moderate due to milder weather and stronger renewable output in Europe, which are easing demand. Still, prices are up more than 70% over March as the conflict continues to strain supply routes.