TTF Prices Extend Decline

European natural gas futures dropped more than 5% toward €48 per MWh on Wednesday, extending the decline from the previous session, tracking broader weakness across energy markets amid hopes that the Middle East conflict may be nearing a resolution. President Donald Trump suggested that the war could end within two to three weeks; however, traders remain on edge as additional US troops are being deployed to the region and the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. Prices were also weighed down by warmer weather and increased energy output, which eased regional demand. Last month, European gas prices surged nearly 60%, marking the largest monthly increase since September 2021 amid concerns over deeper supply disruptions, as the war led to the closure of the Strait and the shutdown of the world’s largest LNG facility in Qatar.

European natural gas futures fell 7% to €53.3 per MWh as milder weather and stronger renewable output reduced demand across the region. Despite the pullback, prices are still up more than 60% in March, the biggest monthly increase since September 2021, driven by the Middle East conflict which has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for around a fifth of global LNG flows, and forced the closure of Qatar’s largest LNG facility. The war has now entered its fifth week with no clear signs of de escalation, raising concerns over deeper supply disruptions. President Donald Trump urged other nations to help secure the strait as Iran continued missile strikes across the Persian Gulf. Earlier reports showed President Trump keen to wind down military operations and pressure Tehran diplomatically into reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

European natural gas futures fell to €53.6 per MWh but remained on track for their largest monthly gain since September 2021. Prices have surged more than 70% this month as the Middle East war has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of global LNG flows, as well as the shutdown of the world’s largest LNG plant in Qatar. The conflict has now stretched into its fifth week with no indication of de-escalation, heightening fears of a deeper supply disruptions. President Trump warned that the US could target Iran’s electric plants, oil wells, and Kharg Island if a deal is not reached soon and if the Strait is not reopened. However, some upward pressure on prices was tempered by milder weather forecasts and stronger renewable output in Europe, which are curbing demand for natural gas.