TTF Prices Rise on Wednesday

European natural gas futures rebounded above €31 per megawatt hour as markets focused on geopolitical risks around the Strait of Hormuz, a key transit route for about 20% of global LNG. Comments from Donald Trump that Iran is rebuilding its nuclear program fueled concerns about potential military action and possible disruptions to tanker traffic through the waterway. Low storage levels also offered support, with EU inventories below 31% compared with 40.7% a year ago, including Germany at 20.7% and France at 21.1%. However, wind and solar output in north-west Europe is set to rise, reducing gas demand from power plants. LNG send out is strong with heavy cargo arrivals into March.

European natural gas futures fell below €31 per megawatt hour, pressured by robust LNG supply and rising renewable generation that reduced demand for gas fired power. Wind and solar output in north-west Europe is expected to increase through the weekend, lowering consumption from utilities. LNG send out remains strong at over 2,500 gigawatt hours per day, with a heavy cargo arrival schedule extending into March. Although Norwegian exports were hit by outages, flows are seen recovering by early March, reinforcing supply. Still, downside may be limited by geopolitical risks and low storage levels. EU gas stocks stand below 31% versus 40.7% a year ago, with Germany at 20.7% and France at 21.1%. Investors also monitor comments from Donald Trump on Iran, as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz could threaten LNG flows.

European natural gas futures fell to below $32 as comments from Donald Trump about a possible limited strike on Iran eased fears of major disruption to LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Markets had been concerned that escalating tensions could threaten shipments via the strait, a key route for roughly 20% of global LNG exports, including volumes from Qatar. Despite reports of military drills by Iran and a US buildup in the region, traders appeared to price in a lower risk of immediate supply interruption. Additional pressure came from milder weather forecasts, steady Norwegian flows despite outages and stronger renewable generation in Germany. However, inventories in the European Union remain low at around 32%, with German storage below 22%.