European Natural Gas Rise Further

European natural gas prices rose above €72 per MWh on Friday, recouping part of the previous session’s losses as investors assessed renewed tensions in the Middle East. The latest flare-up came after a US attack on Iran triggered retaliatory strikes on American bases across the region, fueling supply disruption fears and sending European gas prices to their highest level in more than three years. Although President Trump indicated that renewed strikes on Tehran would not last too long, tensions remain high around the Strait of Hormuz. The shipping paralysis continues to hamper Gulf LNG supplies to Europe, slowing the pace of inventory replenishment. Europe’s gas inventories for the upcoming winter remain abnormally low, raising the risk of tighter competition and leaving the region vulnerable to price spikes during colder months. European gas prices have climbed more than 7% this week, their fourth consecutive weekly gain.

European natural gas prices fell to around €72 per MWh on Thursday after climbing to their highest level in more than three years in the previous session, as President Trump said the renewed campaign against Iran would not last long, easing some market concerns. However, Trump warned that Tehran could face heavy attacks if the dispute over the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved. The latest escalation marked the most intense exchange of strikes between the two sides since July, with neither side willing to relinquish control of the strategic waterway. Around one-fifth of global LNG trade typically passes through the strait, primarily from Qatar. With the winter heating season approaching and European gas storage levels remaining below seasonal norms, the region remains highly sensitive to any prolonged disruption to Gulf supplies.

European natural gas prices climbed further to around €74.5 per megawatt hour on Wednesday, after touching their highest intraday level since January 2023, as traders assessed the latest US-Iran attacks. Growing uncertainty over traffic through the Strait of Hormuz heightened supply concerns and weighed on sentiment. UK gas prices also surged as high as 184 pence per therm, reaching a 43-month high. The US said it had launched overnight airstrikes on targets in Iran, prompting retaliation from Tehran in the most serious escalation between the two countries in weeks. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that the US strikes would further restrict traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy route through which roughly a fifth of global LNG typically passes. Gas prices rose despite expectations of weaker demand, as strong wind power generation reduces the need for gas-fired electricity generation.