European Natural Gas Rise Further

European natural gas futures rose above €36/MWh, extending the rebound from the three-week low of €32.86 on February 3rd amid forecasts of a new cold front in Europe and tighter supply for alternative power generating sources. Meteorologists forecasted a fresh cold snap in norther and easter European countries, lifting the outlook of demand on gas-intensive heating and driving gas traders to raise shipments of North American LNG. In the meantime, wind output across north west Europe remained weak, increasing reliance on gas for electricity generation. Low storage levels continued to support prices, with EU gas inventories around 39.2% full compared with about 52% a year ago. Storage remained particularly low in Germany at 30.2%, France 29% and the Netherlands 23.5%. EU stocks are projected to fall to about 26% by the end of March, implying strong summer injections will be needed to reach 90% before next winter.

European natural gas futures rose to €34/MWh, rebounding from a three-week low of €32.86 on Feb 3 as below-normal wind generation lifted demand for gas from power plants and tightened near-term supply. Wind output across north west Europe remains weak, increasing reliance on gas for electricity generation. While temperatures are currently above normal and expected to peak by Sunday, colder conditions are forecast from February 13, which could boost heating demand. Low storage levels continue to support prices, with EU gas inventories around 39.2% full compared with about 52% a year ago. Storage remains particularly low in Germany at 30.2%, France 29% and the Netherlands 23.5%. EU stocks are projected to fall to about 26% by the end of March, implying strong summer injections will be needed to reach 90% before next winter. Higher LNG arrivals this week may ease pressure, while markets also monitor Ukraine Russia peace talks for supply implications.

European natural gas futures fell to around €33 per megawatt hour, moving further away from a seven-month high of €40 hit on January 23, as concerns about LNG supply eased. Near-term US weather forecasts turned milder, reducing heating demand and freeing up more gas for LNG exports. This improved the outlook for deliveries to Europe, which now relies on LNG for roughly half of its gas needs after losing most Russian pipeline supplies. The US supplied about 27% of the EU’s gas and LNG imports in 2025, making European prices highly sensitive to US supply conditions. Geopolitical risk premiums also faded after President Donald Trump said the US is in talks with Iran, easing fears of disruptions to LNG and oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Still, EU gas storage is at just 41.1% full, far below last year’s level and the five-year average, keeping the market vulnerable to renewed cold or supply shocks.