TTF Prices Rise on Worries Ahead of Heating Season

European natural gas prices rose over 4% to around €47.5 per megawatt hour, rebounding from a two-week low as uncertainty over a Middle East peace deal resurfaced following fresh US military action in the region. Reports indicate that the US conducted “self-defense strikes” targeting Iranian missile launch sites and boats near the Strait of Hormuz. The latest strikes come despite ongoing diplomatic efforts, with President Donald Trump stating that an agreement with Iran is within reach. While most gas exports from the Persian Gulf typically head to Asia, prolonged disruption in the strait would tighten global supply and intensify competition among importing regions. The situation complicate Europe’s efforts to rebuild relatively low gas storage levels ahead of the next winter.

European natural gas prices fell more than 6% to around €45.4 per megawatt hour, their lowest level in two weeks, amid signs of progress toward a US–Iran agreement that could restore energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump said on Saturday that a peace deal with Iran was close, although he later advised negotiators not to rush the agreement, adding that the US blockade would remain in place until a final deal is secured. Iran, however, warned that the draft agreement could still fail, accusing the US of continuing to obstruct key clauses, including its request to unfreeze its overseas assets. Meanwhile, exporters in Qatar and the UAE work to deliver fuel to buyers despite the waterway being largely shut down, with three LNG vessels from the Persian Gulf reportedly crossed the Strait in the past days.

European natural gas prices dropped below €49 per megawatt hour but remained relatively close to their highest level in six weeks on fresh skepticism that the US would reach an imminent agreement with Iran to restore energy exports out of the Persian Gulf. Hawkish rhetoric from Iranian officials weighed against Washington's signal that both countries were close to agreeing on a deal. The developments maintained the loose halt in exports from major GCC producers since March amid the naval blockade for tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz, removing a key source of LNG supply for Asia and Europe. Meanwhile, gas sources from Norway were higher to weigh against shortages elsewhere. Maintenance in the Troll field eased and Norwegian exports rose early 40% to 260 million cubic meters per day.