TTF Prices Slide on Hopes for Middle East Peace

European natural gas prices fell more than 6% to around €45.7 per megawatt hour, their lowest level in two weeks, amid signs of progress toward a US–Iran agreement that could restore energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump said on Saturday that a peace deal with Iran was close, although he later advised negotiators not to rush the agreement, adding that the US blockade would remain in place until a final deal is secured. Iran, however, warned that the draft agreement could still fail, accusing the US of continuing to obstruct key clauses, including its request to unfreeze its overseas assets. The hostilities and near closure of the key waterway have disrupted around one-fifth of global LNG supply, driving prices higher and unsettling energy markets.

European natural gas prices dropped below €49 per megawatt hour but remained relatively close to their highest level in six weeks on fresh skepticism that the US would reach an imminent agreement with Iran to restore energy exports out of the Persian Gulf. Hawkish rhetoric from Iranian officials weighed against Washington's signal that both countries were close to agreeing on a deal. The developments maintained the loose halt in exports from major GCC producers since March amid the naval blockade for tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz, removing a key source of LNG supply for Asia and Europe. Meanwhile, gas sources from Norway were higher to weigh against shortages elsewhere. Maintenance in the Troll field eased and Norwegian exports rose early 40% to 260 million cubic meters per day.

European natural gas futures fell to €49.2 per megawatt hour, though prices remained close to a six-week high as investors continued to grapple with persistent supply disruptions in the Middle East, with the Strait of Hormuz still largely closed. President Donald Trump renewed warnings that the US could launch further strikes on Iran if no agreement is reached, shortly after saying he had postponed a planned attack. Now in its 12th week, the conflict has severely disrupted shipping flows through the Strait, affecting roughly one-fifth of global LNG supply, while hostilities have also spread to key production assets in Qatar. Investors are closely monitoring Europe’s LNG imports, as the region races to secure enough fuel this summer to replenish storage ahead of next winter.