Oil Prices Back on the Rise

WTI crude futures rose around 2% to above $100 a barrel on Thursday, partially recovering from the nearly 6% drop over the previous two sessions, as mixed signals from the US and Iran continue to fuel doubts that a near-term deal can be reached or that the Strait of Hormuz could be fully reopened. In the latest development, Reuters reported that Iran’s Supreme Leader has issued a directive that the country’s near-weapons-grade uranium should not be sent abroad, hardening Tehran’s position on one of the key US demands in peace talks. Meanwhile, Iran announced the creation of a “Persian Gulf Strait Authority,” stating that a “controlled maritime zone” would be enforced in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices remain elevated, nearly 50% above pre-war levels, supported by supply tightness and ongoing US inventory drawdowns. The country withdrew nearly 10 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve last week, marking the largest release on record.

WTI crude futures traded around $99.5 a barrel, after falling nearly 6% over the previous two sessions, as traders cautiously weighed the possibility of a US–Iran deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, sentiment remained fragile amid persistent uncertainty and mixed signals from both sides. Iran said it was reviewing the latest US proposal to end the conflict, after President Trump indicated he was willing to wait a few more days to “get the right answers” from Tehran. Meanwhile, Iran announced the creation of a “Persian Gulf Strait Authority,” stating that a “controlled maritime zone” would be enforced in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices remain elevated, nearly 50% above pre-war levels, supported by supply tightness and ongoing US inventory drawdowns. The country withdrew nearly 10 million barrels from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve last week, marking the largest release on record.

WTI crude futures rose above $99 per barrel on Thursday but held most of the nearly 6% drop from the previous session, as President Trump said the US was nearing the final phase of negotiations with Iran, fueling expectations that Middle Eastern oil supply could gradually return to the market. Tehran is currently evaluating Washington’s latest draft response to its 14-point proposal. A potential deal would likely lead to the removal of both countries’ naval blockades on commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, where tanker traffic has been disrupted since March. Supply optimism was further supported by satellite data showing three supertankers passing through the strait. Still, analysts cautioned that global physical oil markets are likely to remain tight, given that shipments from the Persian Gulf can take nearly two months to reach end markets. Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co.'s CEO said full recovery in Middle Eastern oil flows is unlikely before late 2027.