Oil Extends Gains

WTI crude oil futures rose more than 3% on Thursday, reclaiming levels above $100 per barrel and halting a two-day decline, as markets digested remarks from President Trump on the Iran conflict. Trump said the US is on track to achieve its military objectives within the next two to three weeks, warning that the campaign will target Iran “extremely hard” and restore it “to the stone ages.” While his comments suggested a potential escalation of military operations, he also indicated that diplomatic discussions are ongoing. The conflicting statements raised concerns over the uncertainty of a swift resolution and fears of further damage to energy infrastructure. Meanwhile, Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, warned that some countries could face energy rationing as the month’s oil supply shock intensifies. Elsewhere, US crude inventories rose by 5.5 million barrels to 461.6 million last week, well above market forecasts.

WTI crude futures hovered near $98.82 per barrel on Thursday, extending their recent retreat as hopes of de-escalation in the Iran conflict, now in its fifth week, gained traction, with the White House facing growing pressure to ease tensions. President Trump said the US could halt military strikes within two to three weeks, while keeping the option for limited “spot” attacks. Earlier, Trump stated Iran had sought a ceasefire but stressed any deal would require Tehran to stop blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a claim Iran denied. Markets now await his national address for further clarity. Meanwhile, Fatih Birol of the International Energy Agency warned disruptions could intensify in April, with any prolonged closure of the Strait curbing flows and weighing on Europe. Elsewhere, US crude stocks jumped 5.5 million barrels to 461.6 million in the week ended March 27, far above forecasts and marking a sixth straight rise, highlighting ample supply.

WTI crude futures settled at $99.60 per barrel on Wednesday as growing optimism for a resolution to the conflict with Iran pulled prices lower to start the new month. President Donald Trump suggested US military forces could leave the region within two or three weeks while confirming that Iran’s president has requested a ceasefire. Despite these gains, the White House maintained a firm stance noting that a ceasefire would only be considered once the Strait of Hormuz is open and secure for global shipping. Elsewhere, commercial crude stocks surged by 5.5 million barrels to 461.6 million in the week ended March 27 which far exceeded analyst expectations and marked the sixth consecutive weekly increase. This domestic surplus was driven by a drop in refinery utilization to 92.1% and a decrease in crude runs of 219,000 barrels per day. The strategic waterway remains a critical focus for energy markets after oil funds saw record trading volumes in March.